IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/ifauwp/2025_005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mismatch, long-term unemployment and post-COVID labour market programmes in the Nordic countries

Author

Listed:
  • Forslund, Anders

    (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)

Abstract

This paper explores post-pandemic developments and analyses post-COVID matching dynamics in the Nordic labour markets. It also discusses the role of institutions and the policies implemented to address labour market mismatch in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a recession, with a rapid and sizeable downturn in the Nordic labour markets. They rebounded rapidly, however, and most aggregate measures of labour market performance returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Employment rates continued to rise and exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, high vacancy and unemployment rates continued to coexist after the pandemic. However, Sweden is the only Nordic country to show signs, albeit ambiguous ones, of increased labour market mismatch after the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Forslund, Anders, 2025. "Mismatch, long-term unemployment and post-COVID labour market programmes in the Nordic countries," Working Paper Series 2025:5, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifau.se/globalassets/pdf/se/2025/wp-2025-5-mismatch-long-term-unemployment-and-post-covid-labour-market-programmes-in-the-nordic.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    2. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00840901 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bruno Crépon & Esther Duflo & Marc Gurgand & Roland Rathelot & Philippe Zamora, 2013. "Do Labor Market Policies have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 531-580.
    4. Rafael Lalive, 2007. "Unemployment Benefits, Unemployment Duration, and Post-Unemployment Jobs: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 108-112, May.
    5. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    6. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2018. "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 894-931.
    7. Jensen, Peter & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2003. "The response of youth unemployment to benefits, incentives, and sanctions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 301-316, June.
    8. Battisti, Michele & Giesing, Yvonne & Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya, 2019. "Can job search assistance improve the labour market integration of refugees? Evidence from a field experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    10. Olle Westerlund, 1998. "Internal Migration in Sweden: The Effects of Mobility Grants and Regional Labour Market Conditions," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 363-388, July.
    11. Calmfors, Lars & Forslund, Anders & Hemström, Maria, 2002. "Does active labour market policy work? Lessons from the Swedish experiences," Working Paper Series 2002:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    12. Lena Hensvik & Oskar Nordström Skans, 2016. "Social Networks, Employee Selection, and Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(4), pages 825-867.
    13. Pernilla Andersson Joona & Lena Nekby, 2012. "Intensive Coaching of New Immigrants: An Evaluation Based on Random Program Assignment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 575-600, June.
    14. Pieter Gautier & Paul Muller & Bas van der Klaauw & Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2018. "Estimating Equilibrium Effects of Job Search Assistance," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 1073-1125.
    15. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2008. "The Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(2), pages 385-401, June.
    16. Sjögren, Anna & Vikström, Johan, 2015. "How long and how much? Learning about the design of wage subsidies from policy changes and discontinuities," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 127-137.
    17. Eskil Heinesen & Leif Husted & Michael Rosholm, 2013. "The effects of active labour market policies for immigrants receiving social assistance in Denmark," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Jakob Roland Munch & Lars Skipper, 2008. "Program participation, labor force dynamics, and accepted wage rates," Advances in Econometrics, in: Modelling and Evaluating Treatment Effects in Econometrics, pages 197-262, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Nisar Ahmad & Michael Svarer & Amjad Naveed, 2019. "The Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes and Benefit Sanctions on Reducing Unemployment Duration," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 202-229, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goulas, Eleftherios & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2018. "Active labour-market policies and output growth: Is there a causal relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Lombardi, Stefano & Skans, Oskar Nordström & Vikström, Johan, 2018. "Targeted wage subsidies and firm performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 33-45.
    3. Forslund, Anders, 2019. "Employment outcomes and policies in Sweden during recent decades," Working Paper Series 2019:15, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    4. Blasco, Sylvie & Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara, 2013. "Employment policies, hiring practices and firm performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 12-24.
    5. Jussi Huuskonen, 2023. "The impact of periodic interviews on unemployment duration: Evidence from the 2017 Finnish reform," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 37(3), pages 468-490, September.
    6. Saez, Emmanuel & Landais, Camille & Michaillat, Pascal, 2010. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 8132, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Theodoropoulos, Nikolaos & Voucharas, Georgios, 2023. "Firm Closures and Labor Market Policies in Europe: Evidence from Retrospective Longitudinal Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1288, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Sam Desiere & Bart Cockx, 2021. "How Effective Are Hiring Subsidies to Reduce Long-Term Unemployment among Prime-Aged Jobseekers? Evidence from Belgium," CESifo Working Paper Series 9325, CESifo.
    9. Nisar Ahmad & Michael Svarer & Amjad Naveed, 2019. "The Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes and Benefit Sanctions on Reducing Unemployment Duration," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 202-229, June.
    10. René Böheim & Rainer Eppel & Helmut Mahringer, 2023. "The impact of lower caseloads in public employment services on the unemployed," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Michael C. Knaus & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2022. "Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programs: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 597-636.
    12. Arni, Patrick, 2015. "Opening the Blackbox: How Does Labor Market Policy Affect the Job Seekers' Behavior? A Field Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 9617, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Frederik Thuesen & Vibeke Jakobsen & Nina T. Dalgaard & Bjørn C. A. Viinholt, 2020. "PROTOCOL: Interventions to improve the economic self‐sufficiency of unemployed immigrants from non‐Western countries," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), December.
    14. Lionel Cottier & Yves Flückiger & Pierre Kempeneers & Rafael Lalive, 2024. "Employment Effects of Job Search Assistance for the Long-Term Unemployed," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 114, pages 577-581, May.
    15. Miyamoto Hiroaki & Suphaphiphat Nujin, 2021. "Mitigating Long-term Unemployment in Europe," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, May.
    16. Seonho Shin, 2022. "Evaluating the Effect of the Matching Grant Program for Refugees: An Observational Study Using Matching, Weighting, and the Mantel-Haenszel Test," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 103-133, March.
    17. Lalive, Rafael & Cottier, Lionel & Flueckiger, Yves & Kempeneers, Pierre, 2018. "Does Job Search Assistance Really Raise Employment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Abdellatif Chatri & Khadija Hadef & Naima Samoudi, 2021. "Micro-econometric evaluation of subsidized employment in morocco: the case of the "Idmaj" program," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 55(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Alessio Brown & Johannes Koettl, 2015. "Active labor market programs - employment gain or fiscal drain?," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, December.
    20. Malory Rennoir & Ilan Tojerow, 2019. "Évaluation de l’ensemble du dispositif de contrôle de la disponibilité des chômeurs, tel que mis en œuvre au sein du Forem," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/292150, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment; unemployment; labour market matching; active labour market policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ali Ghooloo The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ali Ghooloo to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifagvse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.