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Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

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  • Michael C. Knaus
  • Michael Lechner
  • Anthony Strittmatter

Abstract

We systematically investigate the effect heterogeneity of job search programs for unemployed workers. To investigate possibly heterogeneous employment effects, we combine nonexperimental causal empirical models with Lassotype estimators. The empirical analyses are based on rich administrative data from Swiss social security records. We find considerable heterogeneities during the first six months after the start of training. Consistent with previous results in the literature, unemployed persons with fewer employment opportunities profit more from participating in these programs. Finally, we show the potential of easy-to-implement program participation rules for improving average employment effects of these active labor market programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael C. Knaus & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2022. "Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programs: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 597-636.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:57:y:2022:i:2:p:597-636
    Note: DOI: 10.3368/jhr.57.2.0718-9615R1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Doerr, Annabelle, 2022. "Vocational training for female job returners - Effects on employment, earnings and job quality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    4. Cockx, Bart & Lechner, Michael & Bollens, Joost, 2023. "Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Denis Fougère & Nicolas Jacquemet, 2020. "Policy Evaluation Using Causal Inference Methods," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03455978, HAL.
    6. Michael C. Knaus & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2018. "Machine Learning Estimation of Heterogeneous Causal Effects: Empirical Monte Carlo Evidence," Papers 1810.13237, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    7. Denis Fougère & Nicolas Jacquemet, 2019. "Causal Inference and Impact Evaluation," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 181-200.
    8. Anna Baiardi & Andrea A. Naghi, 2021. "The Value Added of Machine Learning to Causal Inference: Evidence from Revisited Studies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-001/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Dario Sansone & Anna Zhu, 2020. "Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients," Papers 2011.12057, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    10. Vikström, Johan & Söderström, Martin & Cederlöf, Jonas, 2021. "What makes a good caseworker?," Working Paper Series 2021:9, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    11. Buhl-Wiggers, Julie & Kerwin, Jason & Muñoz, Juan S. & Smith, Jeffrey A. & Thornton, Rebecca L., 2020. "Some Children Left Behind: Variation in the Effects of an Educational Intervention," IZA Discussion Papers 13598, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Michael C Knaus, 2022. "Double machine learning-based programme evaluation under unconfoundedness [Econometric methods for program evaluation]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 602-627.
    13. Ulrike Unterhofer & Conny Wunsch, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Policies: A Novel Instrumental Variables Approach," Papers 2211.12437, arXiv.org.
    14. Daniel Goller & Tamara Harrer & Michael Lechner & Joachim Wolff, 2021. "Active labour market policies for the long-term unemployed: New evidence from causal machine learning," Papers 2106.10141, arXiv.org.
    15. Michael Lechner & Jana Mareckova, 2022. "Modified Causal Forest," Papers 2209.03744, arXiv.org.
    16. Bonev, Petyo, 2020. "Nonparametric identification in nonseparable duration models with unobserved heterogeneity," Economics Working Paper Series 2005, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    17. Miller, Steve, 2020. "Causal forest estimation of heterogeneous and time-varying environmental policy effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Doerr, Annabelle, 2022. "Vocational Training for Female Job Returners - Effects on Employment, Earnings and Job Quality," Working papers 2022/02, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    19. Anthony Strittmatter, 2018. "What Is the Value Added by Using Causal Machine Learning Methods in a Welfare Experiment Evaluation?," Papers 1812.06533, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    20. Andreas Gulyas & Krzysztof Pytka, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement: A Machine-Learning Approach," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_131, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    21. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2018. "SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," Working Papers wp382, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    22. Anna Baiardi & Andrea A. Naghi, 2021. "The Value Added of Machine Learning to Causal Inference: Evidence from Revisited Studies," Papers 2101.00878, arXiv.org.
    23. Guber, Raphael, 2018. "Instrument Validity Tests with Causal Trees: With an Application to the Same-sex Instrument," MEA discussion paper series 201805, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    24. Finn Lattimore & Daniel M. Steinberg & Anna Zhu, 2023. "The Economic Effect of Gaining a New Qualification Later in Life," Papers 2304.01490, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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