IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises? Evidence from panel data

  • M. Zouaoui

    (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - CNRS)

  • G. Nouyrigat

    (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - CNRS)

  • F. Beer

    (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - CNRS)

Registered author(s):

    We test the impact of investor sentiment on a panel of international stock markets. Specifically, we examine the influence of investor sentiment on the probability of stock market crises. We find that investor sentiment increases the probability of occurrence of stock market crises within a one-year horizon. The impact of investor sentiment on stock markets is more pronounced in countries that are culturally more prone to herd-like behavior and overreaction or in countries with low institutional involvement. Results also suggest that investors' sentiment is not a reliable predictor of stock market reversal points

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00534754/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00534754.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2010
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in Cahier de recherche n° 2010-08 E2. 2010
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00534754
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00534754
    Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    2. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1996. "Law and Finance," NBER Working Papers 5661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Lee, Charles & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H., 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Scholarly Articles 27693394, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
    7. Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2003. "Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 975-1008, 06.
    8. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    9. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 0145, European Central Bank.
    10. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
    11. Marvin Goodfriend, 2001. "Financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy," Working Paper 01-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. V. Coudert & M. Gex, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Post-Print halshs-00321667, HAL.
    13. Lily Qiu & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Investor Sentiment Measures," NBER Working Papers 10794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    15. Kenneth L. Fisher & Meir Statman, 2006. "Market Timing In Regressions And Reality," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 293-304.
    16. Ho, Chienwei & Hung, Chi-Hsiou, 2009. "Investor sentiment as conditioning information in asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 892-903, May.
    17. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    19. Niederhoffer, Victor, 1971. "The Analysis of World Events and Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 193-219, April.
    20. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    22. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    23. Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," Working papers 544, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    24. Fischer Black, 1988. "An Equilibrium Model of the Crash," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 269-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    26. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    27. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, 08.
    28. Frederic S. Mishkin & Eugene N. White, 2002. "U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Siegel, Jeremy J, 1992. "Equity Risk Premia, Corporate Profit Forecasts, and Investor Sentiment around the Stock Crash of October 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 557-70, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00534754. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.