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Escaping from hardship, searching for comfort: Climate matching in refugees’ destination choices

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Listed:
  • Diego A. Martin

    (Harvard's Growth Lab)

  • Jose Ramon Morales Arilla

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

  • Alvaro Morales

Abstract

Do refugees settle in destinations that are ecologically similar to their origins? We assess the relevance of “climate matching” theories of migration for Venezuelan refugees in South America. Leveraging social media data, we build and validate the first local bilateral matrix of Venezuelan flows across the region. We measure bilateral ecological similarities in terms of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline. Performing Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood gravity models of migration, we show that Venezuelan flows are more likely between ecologically similar areas. Model predictions explain independent measurements of Venezuelans’ settlement choices at both bilateral and destination levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego A. Martin & Jose Ramon Morales Arilla & Alvaro Morales, 2024. "Escaping from hardship, searching for comfort: Climate matching in refugees’ destination choices," Growth Lab Working Papers 237, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    • Handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:237
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    Cited by:

    1. Ljubica Nedelkoska & Diego Martin & Alexia Lochmann & Ricardo Hausmann & Dany Bahar & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2025. "De facto Openness to Immigration," Papers 2502.16407, arXiv.org.
    2. Ljubica Nedelkoska & Diego A. Martin & Alexia Lochmann & Dany Bahar & Ricardo Hausmann & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2025. "De Facto Openness to Immigration," Growth Lab Working Papers 245, Harvard's Growth Lab.

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    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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