IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedrwp/88806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • John Bailey Jones
  • Yue Li

Abstract

Using a heterogeneous-agent, life-cycle model of Social Security claiming, labor supply and saving, we consider the implications of lifespan inequality for Social Security reform. Quantitative experiments show that welfare is maximized when baseline benefits are independent of lifetime earnings, the payroll tax cap is kept roughly unchanged, and claiming adjustments are reduced. Eliminating the earnings test and the income taxation of Social Security benefits provides additional gains. The Social Security system that would maximize welfare in a "2050 demographics" scenario, characterized by longer lifespans and an increased education-mortality gradient, is similar to the one that would maximize welfare today.

Suggested Citation

  • John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2020. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Working Paper 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:88806
    DOI: 10.21144/wp20-09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/working_papers/2020/wp20-09.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21144/wp20-09?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laun, Tobias & Markussen, Simen & Vigtel, Trond Christian & Wallenius, Johanna, 2019. "Health, longevity and retirement reform," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 123-157.
    2. Hamish Low, 2005. "Self-Insurance in a Life-Cycle Model of Labor Supply and Savings," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 945-975, October.
    3. Daniel Aaronson & Eric French, 2004. "The Effect of Part-Time Work on Wages: Evidence from the Social Security Rules," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(2), pages 329-352, April.
    4. Bagchi, Shantanu, 2019. "Differential mortality and the progressivity of social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Badel, Alejandro & Huggett, Mark, 2017. "The sufficient statistic approach: Predicting the top of the Laffer curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2009. "Removing the Disincentives in Social Security for Long Careers," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 21-38, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-399, April.
    8. Adam Blandin, 2021. "Human Capital And The Social Security Tax Cap," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1626, November.
    9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    10. David A. Wise, 2016. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Disability Insurance Programs and Retirement," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise14-1, March.
    11. Jeske, Karsten & Kitao, Sagiri, 2009. "U.S. tax policy and health insurance demand: Can a regressive policy improve welfare?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 210-221, March.
    12. Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2011. "The Effects of Health Insurance and Self‐Insurance on Retirement Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 693-732, May.
    13. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969, December.
    14. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    15. Helmuth Cremer & Jean‐Marie Lozachmeur & Pierre Pestieau, 2010. "Collective Annuities and Redistribution," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(1), pages 23-41, February.
    16. Mariacristina De Nardi, 2004. "Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 743-768.
    17. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    18. Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura, 1999. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 498-531, July.
    19. Jones, John Bailey & Li, Yue, 2018. "The effects of collecting income taxes on Social Security benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 128-145.
    20. Yang, Fang, 2013. "Social security reform with impure intergenerational altruism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 52-67.
    21. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2011. "Differential Mortality by Income and Social Security Progressivity," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in the Economics of Aging, pages 189-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2019. "The joint labor supply decision of married couples and the U.S. Social Security pension system," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 277-304, January.
    23. Mark Huggett & Juan Carlos Parra, 2010. "How Well Does the U.S. Social Insurance System Provide Social Insurance?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 76-112, February.
    24. Sanchez-Romero, Miguel & Lee, Ronald D. & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2020. "Redistributive effects of different pension systems when longevity varies by socioeconomic status," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    25. Gouveia, Miguel & Strauss, Robert P., 1994. "Effective Federal Individual Tax Functions: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 47(2), pages 317-339, June.
    26. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2008. "The Optimal Design of Social Security Benefits," Working Papers wp197, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    27. Cogan, John F, 1981. "Fixed Costs and Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 945-963, June.
    28. Henry J. Aaron, 1977. "Demographic Effects on the Equity of Social Security Benefits," International Economic Association Series, in: Martin S. Feldstein & Robert P. Inman (ed.), The Economics of Public Services, chapter 7, pages 151-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    29. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
    30. Irena Dushi & Leora Friedberg & Anthony Webb, 2021. "Is the Adjustment of Social Security Benefits Actuarially Fair, and If So, for Whom?," Working Papers wp421, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    31. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2013. "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Regulation from Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 383-404, July.
    32. Shantanu Bagchi & Juergen Jung, 2020. "Health Risk and the Welfare Effects of Social Security," Working Papers 2020-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2022.
    33. Virginia Sánchez‐Marcos & Carlos Bethencourt, 2018. "The effect of public pensions on women's labor market participation over a full life cycle," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 707-733, July.
    34. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2016. "Medicaid Insurance in Old Age," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3480-3520, November.
    35. A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), 2002. "Handbook of Public Economics," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    36. Gouveia, Miguel & Strauss, Robert P., 1994. "Effective Federal Individual Tax Functions: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 47(2), pages 317-39, June.
    37. Kitao, Sagiri, 2014. "A life-cycle model of unemployment and disability insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    38. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2023. "Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labour Supply?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 102-131.
    39. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Kehoe, Timothy J. & Nygaard, Vegard M. & Raveendranathan, Gajendran, 2020. "Implications of increasing college attainment for aging in general equilibrium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    40. Irena Dushi & Leora Friedberg & Anthony Webb, 2021. "Is the Adjustment of Social Security Benefits Actuarially Fair, and If So, for Whom?," SCEPA working paper series. 2021-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    41. Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    42. Lee M. Lockwood, 2018. "Incidental Bequests and the Choice to Self-Insure Late-Life Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2513-2550, September.
    43. John Bound & Arline T. Geronimus & Javier M. Rodriguez & Timothy A. Waidmann, "undated". "Measuring Recent Apparent Declines in Longevity: The Role of Increasing Educational Attainment," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 0c715b1386df45edb4d21d33c, Mathematica Policy Research.
    44. Courtney Coile & Kevin S. Milligan & David A. Wise, 2016. "Social Security and Retirement Programs Around the World: The Capacity to Work at Older Ages – Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 21939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
    46. Karen A. Kopecky & Tatyana Koreshkova, 2014. "The Impact of Medical and Nursing Home Expenses on Savings," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 29-72, July.
    47. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    48. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2013. "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Regulation from Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 383-404, July.
    49. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Sagiri Kitao, 2012. "Social Security Reforms: Benefit Claiming, Labor Force Participation, and Long-Run Sustainability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 96-127, July.
    50. Eric French & John Jones, 2012. "Public pensions and labor supply over the life cycle," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(2), pages 268-287, April.
    51. Orazio Attanasio & Sagiri Kitao & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Financing Medicare: A General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 333-366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Abdoulaye Ndiaye, 2017. "Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation," Working Paper Series WP-2018-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    53. Marios Karabarbounis, 2016. "A Road Map for Efficiently Taxing Heterogeneous Agents," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 182-214, April.
    54. Kahn, James A., 1988. "Social security, liquidity, and early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 97-117, February.
    55. Li, Yue, 2018. "Paradoxical effects of increasing the normal retirement age: A prospective evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 512-527.
    56. J. A. Mirrlees, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(2), pages 175-208.
    57. Barry P. Bosworth & Kathleen Burke, 2014. "Differential Mortality and Retirement Benefits in the Health and Retirement Study," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2014-4, Center for Retirement Research.
    58. Laura Feiveson, 2018. "How Does Intergenerational Wealth Transmission Affect Wealth Concentration?," FEDS Notes 2018-06-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    59. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2020. "Social Security reform: three Rawlsian options," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1582-1607, December.
    60. Courtney Coile & Kevin S. Milligan & David A. Wise, 2016. "Health Capacity to Work at Older Ages: Evidence from the U.S," NBER Working Papers 21940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), 2002. "Handbook of Public Economics," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje & Jang, Youngsoo, 2023. "Mortality Regressivity and Pension Design," MPRA Paper 117936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Valentin Marian Antohi & Romeo Victor Ionescu & Marius Sorin Dinca & Monica Laura Zlati & Costinela Fortea, 2023. "Dynamics of the Social Security Index in the Context of the Economic Crisis in Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Parente, Rafael Machado, 2023. "Social security reforms, retirement and sectoral decisions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 838, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Saifur Rahman Chowdhury & Tachlima Chowdhury Sunna & Shakil Ahmed, 2021. "Telemedicine is an important aspect of healthcare services amid COVID‐19 outbreak: Its barriers in Bangladesh and strategies to overcome," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 4-12, January.
    5. Adina Ponta, 2021. "Legal instability in cyberspace and OSCE’s mitigation role," Juridical Tribune (Tribuna Juridica), Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Law Department, vol. 11(3), pages 411-429, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2023. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 320-344, April.
    2. Jones, John Bailey & Li, Yue, 2018. "The effects of collecting income taxes on Social Security benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 128-145.
    3. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung, 2022. "Social health insurance: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Blundell, R. & French, E. & Tetlow, G., 2016. "Retirement Incentives and Labor Supply," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 457-566, Elsevier.
    5. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Gomes, Diego B.P., 2017. "Health care reform or more affordable health care?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 126-153.
    6. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung & Chambers, Matthew, 2017. "Aging and health financing in the U.S.: A general equilibrium analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 428-462.
    7. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje (Poe) Porapakkarm & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2017. "The Lifetime Costs of Bad Health," 2017 Meeting Papers 533, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Li, Yue, 2018. "Paradoxical effects of increasing the normal retirement age: A prospective evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 512-527.
    9. Tomoaki Kotera, 2020. "Sustainability of Social Security in the Aging Economy from the Perspective of Improving Health," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2016. "Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 132-159, April.
    11. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2016. "Cross-Subsidization in Employer-Based Health Insurance and the Effects of Tax Subsidy Reform," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 69(3), pages 583-612, September.
    12. Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2019. "Accounting for Social Security claiming behavior," MPRA Paper 97958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2020. "Saving Motives over the Life-Cycle," MPRA Paper 100208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. FUKAI Taiyo & ICHIMURA Hidehiko & KANAZAWA Kyogo, 2018. "Quantifying Health Shocks over the Life Cycle," Discussion papers 18014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2016. "Savings After Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 177-204, October.
    16. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones & Rory McGee, 2021. "Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 21(09), pages 1-65, May.
    17. Jang, Youngsoo, 2019. "Credit, Default, and Optimal Health Insurance," MPRA Paper 95705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2019. "Reducing Medical Spending of the Publicly Insured: The Case for a Cash-out Option," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 390-426, August.
    19. Minchung Hsu & Tomoaki Yamada, 2019. "Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 547-577, April.
    20. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones & Rory McGee, 2021. "Why Do Couples and Singles Save during Retirement? Household Heterogeneity and its Aggregate Implications," NBER Working Papers 28828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social security; Mortality; Labor Supply; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:88806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Pascasio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.