Threshold models of technological transitions
We present a systematic review of seven threshold models of technological transitions from physics, biology, economics and sociology. The very same phenomenon of a technological transition can be explained by very different logics, ranging from economic explanations based on price, performance and increasing returns to alternative explanations based on word-of-mouth recommendation, convergence of expectations, or social mimicking behaviour. Our review serves as a menu for future modelling exercises that can take one or more elementary transition models as a basis, and extend these model to fit more specific sectoral, technological or territorial contexts.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2013|
|Date of revision:||Aug 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Tema Building 1.40, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven|
Phone: (+31) (0)40 247 5938
Fax: (+31) (0)40 247 2607
Web page: http://ecis.ieis.tue.nl/welcome
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384, July.
- Jan W. Rivkin & Nicolaj Siggelkow, 2003. "Balancing Search and Stability: Interdependencies Among Elements of Organizational Design," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(3), pages 290-311, March.
- Bruckner, E & Ebeling, W & Jimenez Montano, M.A. & Scharnhorst, A., 1996. "Nonlinear Stochastic Effects of Substitution--An Evolutionary Approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, February.
- Paul Windrum & Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessio Moneta, 2007. "Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models: Alternatives and Prospects," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
- Floortje Alkemade & Koen Frenken & Marko Hekkert & Malte Schwoon, 2009.
"A complex systems methodology to transition management,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 527-543, August.
- Malte Schwoon & Floortje Alkemade & Koen Frenken & Marko P. Hekkert, 2008. "A complex systems methodology to transition management," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-12, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008.
- Safarzynska, Karolina & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2011. "Beyond replicator dynamics: Innovation-selection dynamics and optimal diversity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 229-245, May.
- Karolina Safarzynska & Jeroen C.J.M. Van den Bergh, 2011. "Beyond Replicator Dynamics: Innovation-Selection Dynamics and Optimal Diversity," Post-Print hal-00989520, HAL.
- Solomon, Sorin & Weisbuch, Gerard & de Arcangelis, Lucilla & Jan, Naeem & Stauffer, Dietrich, 2000. "Social percolation models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 239-247.
- Koen Frenken & Luis R. Izquierdo & Paolo Zeppini, 2012. "Recombinant Innovation and Endogenous Transitions," Working Papers 12-01, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Jan 2012.
- van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2008. "Optimal diversity: Increasing returns versus recombinant innovation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(3-4), pages 565-580, December.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- Johan Schot & Frank Geels, 2007. "Niches in evolutionary theories of technical change," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 605-622, October.
- Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
- López-Pintado, Dunia, 2008. "Diffusion in complex social networks," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 573-590, March.
- Dunia López-Pintado, 2004. "Diffusion In Complex Social Networks," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-33, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Malte Schwoon, 2006. "Simulating the adoption of fuel cell vehicles," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 435-472, October.
- Kandori, Michihiro & Mailath, George J & Rob, Rafael, 1993. "Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 29-56, January.
- Kandori, M. & Mailath, G.J., 1991. "Learning, Mutation, And Long Run Equilibria In Games," Papers 71, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - John M. Olin Program.
- M. Kandori & G. Mailath & R. Rob, 1999. "Learning, Mutation and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Levine's Working Paper Archive 500, David K. Levine.
- Kerstin Press, 2008. "Divide to conquer? Limits to the adaptability of disintegrated, flexible specialization clusters," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 565-580, July.
- Paolo Zeppini & Koen Frenken & Luis R. Izquierdo, 2013. "Innovation diffusion in networks: the microeconomics of percolation," Working Papers 13-02, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Feb 2013.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
- Sahal, Devendra, 1985. "Technological guideposts and innovation avenues," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 61-82, April.
- Lopolito, A. & Morone, P. & Taylor, R., 2013. "Emerging innovation niches: An agent based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1225-1238.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2005. "A percolation model of innovation in complex technology spaces," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 225-244, January.
- Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces," Working Papers 02.12, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
- Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 24, Society for Computational Economics.
- Malte Schwoon, 2005. "Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles," Working Papers FNU-59, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2006.
- Martin Hohnisch & Sabine Pittnauer & Dietrich Stauffer, 2008. "A percolation-based model explaining delayed takeoff in new-product diffusion," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 1001-1017, October.
- Paolo Zeppini & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2010. "Competing Recombinant Technologies for Environmental Innovation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-107/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Koen Frenken & Alessandro Nuvolari, 2004. "The early development of the steam engine: an evolutionary interpretation using complexity theory," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 419-450, April.
- Frenken, K. & Nuvolari, A., 2003. "The Early Development of the Steam Engine: An Evolutionary Interpretation using Complexity Theory," Working Papers 03.15, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
- Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
- Brian Arthur, W. & Ermoliev, Yu. M. & Kaniovski, Yu. M., 1987. "Path-dependent processes and the emergence of macro-structure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 294-303, June.
- Herbert Dawid & Michael Neugart, 2011. "Agent-based Models for Economic Policy Design," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 44-50.
- Dosi, Giovanni & Ermoliev, Yuri & Kaniovski, Yuri, 1994. "Generalized urn schemes and technological dynamics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Pistorius, C. W. I. & Utterback, J. M., 1997. "Multi-mode interaction among technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 67-84, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ein:tuecis:1306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carolina Castaldi)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.