A complex systems methodology to transition management
There is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology that identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2646 possible future car systems.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Date of revision:||Apr 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.uu.nl/faculty/geosciences/EN/research/institutesandgroups/researchinstitutes/copernicusinstitute/research/Innovation/Pages/default.aspx|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kauffman, Stuart & Lobo, Jose & Macready, William G., 2000. "Optimal search on a technology landscape," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 141-166, October.
- Herbert A. Simon, 2002. "Near decomposability and the speed of evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 587-599, June.
- Cowan, Robin, 1988.
"Nuclear Power Reactors: A Study In Technological Lock-In,"
88-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Cowan, Robin, 1990. "Nuclear Power Reactors: A Study in Technological Lock-in," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(03), pages 541-567, September.
- Auerswald, Philip & Kauffman, Stuart & Lobo, Jose & Shell, Karl, 2000.
"The production recipes approach to modeling technological innovation: An application to learning by doing,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 389-450, March.
- Philip Auerswald & Stuart Kauffman & Jose Lobo & Karl Shell, 1998. "The Production Recipes Approach to Modeling Technological Innovation: An Application to Learning By Doing," Working Papers 98-11-100, Santa Fe Institute.
- Jeroen Struben & John D Sterman, 2008. "Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(6), pages 1070-1097, November.
- Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2002.
"A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
24, Society for Computational Economics.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2005. "A percolation model of innovation in complex technology spaces," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 225-244, January.
- Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces," Working Papers 02.12, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
- Saviotti, P. P. & Metcalfe, J. S., 1984. "A theoretical approach to the construction of technological output indicators," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 141-151, June.
- Jeroen Bergh, 2007.
"Evolutionary thinking in environmental economics,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 521-549, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uis:wpaper:0812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gaston Heimeriks)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.