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Deconstructing deglobalization: the future of trade is in intermediate services

Author

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  • Baldwin, Richard
  • Freeman, Rebecca
  • Theodorakopoulos, Angelos

Abstract

This article contests the idea that the world has entered a post-globalization era. It argues that rapid globalization has evolved rather than ended. Even though the global goods trade-to-GDP ratio reached its zenith 15 years ago, the rapid rise of services trade has persisted and now accounts for one-fifth of international commerce. The paper makes a statistical and logical case that the future of trade lies in services trade—especially trade in intermediate services.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldwin, Richard & Freeman, Rebecca & Theodorakopoulos, Angelos, 2024. "Deconstructing deglobalization: the future of trade is in intermediate services," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122847, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:122847
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/122847/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    11. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simona Giglioli & Claire Giordano & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2025. "Trade fragmentation unveiled: five facts on the reconfiguration of global, US and EU trade," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 52(3), pages 535-557, September.
    2. Faber, Marius & Kilic, Kemal & Kozliakov, Gleb & Marin, Dalia, 2025. "Global value chains in a world of uncertainty and automation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2024. "Comment on “Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 38-39, January.
    4. Eduardo Hernandez-Rodriguez, 2024. "Technological diversification through global value chains in European regions," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2429, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Sep 2024.
    5. R. Boschma & Eduardo Hernández-Rodríguez & A. Morrison & C. Pietrobelli, 2021. "Do global value chains and local capabilities matter for economic complexity in EU regions?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2139, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Dec 2021.
    6. Reardon, Thomas & Awokuse, Titus & Belton, Ben & Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Minten, Bart & Nguyen, Genevieve & Qanti, Sara & Swinnen, Johan & Vos, Rob & Zilberman, David, 2024. "Emerging outsource agricultural services enable farmer adaptation in agrifood value chains: A product cycle perspective," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Sebestyén, Tamás & Braun, Erik, 2025. "Szerkezeti változások és függőségek - Magyarország helyzete a globális értékláncokban [Structural change and dependencies: the position of the Hungarian economy in global value chains]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 805-841.
    8. Banri ITO & Eiichi TOMIURA, 2025. "The Productivity Effects of Cross-border Data Flows: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data," Discussion papers 25125, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Ayako Obashi, 2024. "Comment on “Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 40-41, January.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2024. "Deglobalization: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Steven A. Altman & Caroline R. Bastian & Davis Fattedad, 2024. "Challenging the deglobalization narrative: Global flows have remained resilient through successive shocks," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(4), pages 416-439, December.
    12. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2025. "Inflation, financial development, and income/wealth inequality in the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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