IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiapr/v19y2024i1p18-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Baldwin
  • Rebecca Freeman
  • Angelos Theodorakopoulos

Abstract

This article contests the idea that the world has entered a post‐globalization era. It argues that rapid globalization has evolved rather than ended. Even though the global goods trade‐to‐GDP ratio reached its zenith 15 years ago, the rapid rise of services trade has persisted and now accounts for one‐fifth of international commerce. The paper makes a statistical and logical case that the future of trade lies in services trade—especially trade in intermediate services.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2024. "Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 18-37, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:19:y:2024:i:1:p:18-37
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12440
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/aepr.12440?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghani, Ejaz (ed.), 2010. "The Service Revolution in South Asia," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198065111.
    2. Benz, Sebastian & Jaax, Alexander, 2022. "The costs of regulatory barriers to trade in services: New estimates of ad valorem tariff equivalents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Rebecca Freeman & Richard Baldwin, 2022. "Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 153-180, August.
    4. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 121-142.
    5. Miroudot, Sébastien & Ye, Ming, 2022. "Decomposing value added in gross exports from a country and bilateral perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
    8. Kaushik Basu, 2018. "A short history of India's economy: A chapter in the Asian drama," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Richard Baldwin, 2016. "The World Trade Organization and the Future of Multilateralism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 95-116, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2024. "Comment on “Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 38-39, January.
    2. Ayako Obashi, 2024. "Comment on “Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 40-41, January.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2024. "Deglobalization: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahbaz Nasir & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2016. "Information and Communication Technology-Enabled Modern Services Export Performances of Asian Economies," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 1-27, March.
    2. van der Marel, Erik, 2011. "Determinants of comparative advantage in services," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38993, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash, 2017. "What Drives India's Surge in Service Exports?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 439-461, February.
    4. Tamar Khachaturian & Sarah Oliver, 2023. "Intangible trade: Understanding the relationship between trade barriers and mode of supply in services sectors," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1189-1234, May.
    5. Ghani, Ejaz, 2012. "Service with a Smile," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 96, pages 1-6, November.
    6. Baldwin, Richard & Freeman, Rebecca & Theodorakopoulos, Angelos, 2022. "Horses for courses: measuring foreign supply chain exposure," Bank of England working papers 996, Bank of England.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Services diversification and economic growth," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 49-86, June.
    8. Camille Reverdy, 2023. "Estimating the general equilibrium effects of services trade liberalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 493-521, May.
    9. Acar, Mustafa & Afyonoglu, Burcu & Kus, Savas & Vural, Bengisu, 2007. "Turkey’s Agricultural Integration with the EU: Quantifying the Implications," Conference papers 331657, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    11. Jarreau, Joachim & Poncet, Sandra, 2012. "Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 281-292.
    12. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong & Holger Görg & Zhihong Yu, 2009. "Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 863-891, December.
    13. Erik Marel & Ben Shepherd, 2013. "Services Trade, Regulation and Regional Integration: Evidence from Sectoral Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1393-1405, November.
    14. Carolina Lennon, 2008. "Trade in services and trade in goods: differences and complementarities," Working Papers halshs-00586223, HAL.
    15. Hildegunn K. Nordås & Dorothée Rouzet, 2017. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1155-1183, June.
    16. Pedro E. Moncarz, 2010. "Determinantes del comercio de servicios financieros Potencial de exportaciones para los países sudamericanos," Documentos de trabajo 2010019, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    17. Chen, Xi & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 465-480.
    18. Rouzet, Dorothée & Benz, Sebastian & Spinelli, Francesca, 2017. "Trading Firms and Trading Costs in Services: Firm-Level Analysis," Conference papers 332911, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Ahn, JaeBin & Choi, Moon Jung, 2020. "From firm-level imports to aggregate productivity: Evidence from Korean manufacturing firm data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Byron Gangnes & Ari Van Assche, 2010. "Global Production Networks in Electronics and Intra-Asian Trade," Working Papers 201004, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:19:y:2024:i:1:p:18-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jcerrjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.