IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eea/boewps/wp2015-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Firm turnover and inflation dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Lenno Uuskula

Abstract

This paper examines the role of firm turnover in explaining inflation dynamics. I augment a New-Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous entry and exogenous stochastic exit and estimate with the Bayesian full information approach for the US economy. Results show that shocks to the entry cost explain more than half of the inflation variance at the business cycle frequencies. When it is cheap to create firms, the number of new firms goes up and inflation increases as labour intensive creation of firms pushes up the demand for labour. Only gradually, when the number of firms is high and the number of new firms goes down again, does inflation fall, as stressed by the standard mechanism for an increasing number of firms

Suggested Citation

  • Lenno Uuskula, 2015. "Firm turnover and inflation dynamics," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-01, Bank of Estonia, revised 03 Feb 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2015-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eestipank.ee/sites/eestipank.ee/files/publication/en/WorkingPapers/2015/wp01_2015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haefke, Christian & Sonntag, Marcus & van Rens, Thijs, 2013. "Wage rigidity and job creation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 887-899.
    2. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "The Regulation of Entry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(1), pages 1-37.
    3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    4. Martina Cecioni, 2010. "Firm entry, competitive pressures and the US inflation dynamics," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 773, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Barseghyan, Levon & DiCecio, Riccardo, 2011. "Entry costs, industry structure, and cross-country income and TFP differences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 1828-1851, September.
    6. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    7. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    8. Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
    9. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 299-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
    11. Till Gross & Stéphane Verani, 2012. "Financing Constraints, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lenno UUSKÜLA, 2008. "Limited Participation or Sticky Prices? New Evidence from Firm Entry and Failures," EcoMod2008 23800147, EcoMod.
    13. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    14. Minniti, Antonio & Turino, Francesco, 2013. "Multi-product firms and business cycle dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 75-97.
    15. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2022. "How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-37, January.
    16. Djankov, S. & La Porta, R. & Lopez-de-Silanes, F. & Shleifer, Andrei, 2002. "The Regulation of Entry," Scholarly Articles 30747190, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    17. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    18. Lewis, Vivien & Stevens, Arnoud, 2015. "Entry and markup dynamics in an estimated business cycle model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 14-35.
    19. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
    20. Patrick Macnamara, 2014. "Entry and Exit with Financial Frictions," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 193, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Offick, Sven & Winkler, Roland C., 2019. "Endogenous Firm Entry In An Estimated Model Of The U.S. Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 284-321, January.
    22. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    23. Kudlyak, Marianna, 2014. "The cyclicality of the user cost of labor," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 53-67.
    24. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    25. Bergin, Paul R. & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2008. "The extensive margin and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1222-1237, October.
    26. Bils, Mark, 1987. "The Cyclical Behavior of Marginal Cost and Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 838-855, December.
    27. Uhlig, Harald, 2007. "Monetary policy in Europe vs the US: what explains the difference?," MPRA Paper 14119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Paul Bergin & Ling Feng & Ching-Yi Lin, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 20099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    30. Rabanal, Pau, 2007. "Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 906-937, March.
    31. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    32. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
    33. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Fabio Filipozzi & Karsten Staehr, 2017. "Uncovered interest parity in Central and Eastern Europe: Expectations and structural breaks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 695-710, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Uusküla, Lenno, 2016. "Monetary transmission mechanism with firm turnover," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Lewis, Vivien & Stevens, Arnoud, 2015. "Entry and markup dynamics in an estimated business cycle model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 14-35.
    3. V. Lewis & C. Poilly, 2011. "Firm Entry, Inflation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/705, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Etro, Federico & Rossi, Lorenza, 2015. "New-Keynesian Phillips curve with Bertrand competition and endogenous entry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 318-340.
    5. Colciago, Andrea & Lewis, Vivien & Matyska, Branka, 2023. "Corporate taxes, productivity, and business dynamism," Discussion Papers 16/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Lenno UUSKÜLA, 2008. "Limited Participation or Sticky Prices? New Evidence from Firm Entry and Failures," EcoMod2008 23800147, EcoMod.
    7. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    8. Lewis, Vivien & Stevens, Arnoud, 2012. "The competition effect in business cycles," IMFS Working Paper Series 51, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    9. Andrea Colciago & Vivien Lewis & Branka Matyska, 2023. "Corporate taxes, productivity, and business dynamism," Working Papers 780, DNB.
    10. Andrea Colciago & Vivien Lewis & Branka Matyska, 2023. "Corporate taxes, productivity, and business dynamism," Working Papers 512, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2023.
    11. Totzek, Alexander, 2011. "Banks, oligopolistic competition, and the business cycle: A new financial accelerator approach," Economics Working Papers 2011-02, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    12. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    13. Etro, Federico & Rossi, Lorenza, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy under Calvo pricing with Bertrand competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 423-440.
    14. Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2015. "Financial frictions and the extensive margin of activity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 525-554.
    15. Paul Bergin & Ling Feng & Ching-Yi Lin, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 20099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Cavallari, Lilia, 2015. "Entry costs and the dynamics of business formation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 312-326.
    17. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Poutineau, Jean-Christophe, 2012. "The effect of a common currency on the volatility of the extensive margin of trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1156-1179.
    18. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    19. Anthony M. Diercks, 2015. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Masashige Hamano & Pierre M. Picard, 2017. "Extensive and intensive margins and exchange rate regimes," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 804-837, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; New-Keynesian Phillips curve; firm turnover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2015-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peeter Luikmel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgovee.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.