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A Real Options Framework for Analyzing Program Participation as Human Capital Investments: The Case of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program

  • Mitchell, Paul D.

    (University of Wisconsin Madison)

  • Rejesus, Roderick M.

    (NC State University)

  • Coble, Keith H.

    (Mississippi State University)

  • Knight, Thomas O.

    (Texas Tech University)

We develop a real options framework to model producer participation in a subsidy program as a human capital investment to learn how the stochastic subsidy affects returns and how to adapt production activities to new program incentives, formally linking the framework to a multinomial logit specification for empirical applications. Analysis of farmer intentions for participation in the ACRE program created by the 2008 Farm Bill finds that reluctance to participate was driven largely by risk aversion and perceptions about income risk from yield and price variability, consistent with the theory that uncertainty creates an option value discouraging human capital investments.

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Paper provided by University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics in its series Staff Paper Series with number 547.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:547
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  1. Bruce Gardner & Ian Hardie & Peter J. Parks, 2010. "United States Farm Commodity Programs and Land Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 803-820.
  2. Kenneth A. Baerenklau & Keith C. Knapp, 2007. "Dynamics of Agricultural Technology Adoption: Age Structure, Reversibility, and Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 190-201.
  3. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2007. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty," Staff General Research Papers 12851, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2007. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Staff General Research Papers 12841, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Olson, Kent D. & DalSanto, Matthew R., 2008. "Provisions and Potential Impacts of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Papers 42980, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  6. Woolverton, Andrea E. & Edwin, Young, 2009. "Factors Influencing ACRE Program Enrollment," Economic Research Report 55954, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  7. Janis M. Carey & David Zilberman, 2002. "A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 171-183.
  8. Velandia, Margarita M. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Knight, Thomas O. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2009. "Factors Affecting Farmers’ Utilization of Agricultural Risk Management Tools: The Case of Crop Insurance, Forward Contracting, and Spreading Sales," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(01), April.
  9. David A. Hennessy, 1998. "The Production Effects of Agricultural Income Support Policies under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 46-57.
  10. Jacobs, Bas, 2007. "Real options and human capital investment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 913-925, December.
  11. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & Barry K. Goodwin & Allen Featherstone, 2006. "Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 269-288, September.
  12. Femenia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre & Carpentier, Alain, 2008. "The decoupling of farm programs: Revisiting the wealth effect," 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland 48107, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  13. Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Costs and Benefits of Moving to a County ACRE Program," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 10-pb2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  14. Patrick, George F. & Peiter, Amy J. & Knight, Thomas O. & Coble, Keith H. & Baquet, Alan E., 2007. "Hog Producers' Risk Management Attitudes and Desire for Additional Risk Management Education," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(03), December.
  15. Sangtaek Seo & Eduardo Segarra & Paul D. Mitchell & David J. Leatham, 2008. "Irrigation technology adoption and its implication for water conservation in the Texas High Plains: a real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(1), pages 47-55, 01.
  16. Christopher R. McIntosh & Jason F. Shogren & Erik Dohlman, 2007. "Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1046-1057.
  17. Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu, 2002. "Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences And Adoption Of Site-Specific Technologies," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  18. Jean-Daniel M. Saphores, 2000. "The Economic Threshold with a Stochastic Pest Population: A Real Options Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 541-555.
  19. Bruce J. Sherrick & Peter J. Barry & Paul N. Ellinger & Gary D. Schnitkey, 2004. "Factors Influencing Farmers' Crop Insurance Decisions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 103-114.
  20. Isik, Murat & Yang, Wanhong, 2004. "An Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty and Irreversibility on Farmer Participation in the Conservation Reserve Program," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(02), August.
  21. Nicolai V. Kuminoff & Ada Wossink, 2010. "Why Isn't More US Farmland Organic?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 240-258.
  22. Keith D. Brouthers & Lance Eliot Brouthers & Steve Werner, 2008. "Real Options, International Entry Mode Choice and Performance," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 936-960, 07.
  23. Price, T. Jeffrey & Wetzstein, Michael E., 1999. "Irreversible Investment Decisions In Perennial Crops With Yield And Price Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
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