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Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study

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  • Christopher R. McIntosh
  • Jason F. Shogren
  • Erik Dohlman

Abstract

We design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios, each incorporating direct payments (DPs): (a) price uncertainty without countercyclical payments (CCPs); (b) price uncertainty with CCPs; and (c) price uncertainty, CCPs, and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating. Results are the CCP program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program (base) crops, despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions. Those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes, suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher R. McIntosh & Jason F. Shogren & Erik Dohlman, 2007. "Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1046-1057.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:89:y:2007:i:4:p:1046-1057
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01011.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Filippin, Antonio & Crosetto, Paolo, 2014. "A Reconsideration of Gender Differences in Risk Attitudes," IZA Discussion Papers 8184, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Arathi Bhaskar & John C. Beghin, 2010. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 849-858.
    3. Prifti, Ervin & Daidone, Silvio & Pace, Noemi & Davis, Benjamin, 2019. "Unconditional cash transfers, risk attitudes and modern inputs demand," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 53, pages 100-118.
    4. Liesbeth Colen & Sergio Gomez y Paloma & Uwe Latacz-Lohmann & Marianne Lefebvre & Raphaële Préget & Sophie Thoyer, 2016. "Economic Experiments as a Tool for Agricultural Policy Evaluation: Insights from the European CAP," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(4), pages 667-694, December.
    5. Wagener, Andreas & Zenker, Juliane, 2018. "Decoupled but not neutral: The effects of stochastic transfers on investment and incomes in rural Thailand," TVSEP Working Papers wp-008, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, Project TVSEP.
    6. Andreas Wagener & Juliane Zenker, 2021. "Decoupled but Not Neutral: The Effects of Counter‐Cyclical Cash Transfers on Investment and Incomes in Rural Thailand†," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1637-1660, October.
    7. Bakhshi, Samira & Kerr, William A., 2009. "Is There Supply Distortion In The Green Box? An Acreage Response Approach," Working Papers 51093, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    8. Mitchell, Paul D. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2011. "Analyzing Farmer Participation Intentions and Enrollment Rates for the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Paper Series 560, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    9. Voica, Daniel C., 2014. "Are Subsidies Decoupled from Production in the Presence of Incomplete Financial Markets?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169788, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Fabienne Femenia & Alexandre Gohin & Alain Carpentier, 2010. "The Decoupling of Farm Programs: Revisiting the Wealth Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 836-848.
    11. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2009. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-24, April.
    12. Abby Kelly & Kalyn T. Coatney & Xiaofei Li & Keith H. Coble, 2020. "Subsidy Incidence in the Presence of Bertrand Suppliers of Complementary Inputs: A U.S. Agricultural Example," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 479-501, September.
    13. Mitchell, Paul D. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2010. "A Real Options Framework for Analyzing Program Participation as Human Capital Investments: The Case of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Papers 92896, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    14. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2007. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Updating Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 7350, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2007. "How Coupled are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of Coupling Mechanisms and the Evidence," Working Papers 7347, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. O'Donoghue, Erik J. & Whitaker, James B., 2006. "How distorting are direct payments?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Ekaterina Vorotnikova & Serhat Asci & James L. Seale, 2018. "Joint production, land allocation, and the effects of the production flexibility program," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1121-1143, November.
    18. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
    19. Caleb Cox & Arzé Karam & Matthias Pelster, 2022. "Two-Period Duopolies with Forward Markets," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 60(1), pages 29-62, February.

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