IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2004420.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On prosperity and posterity: the need for fiscal discipline in a monetary union

Author

Listed:
  • Detken, Carsten
  • Winkler, Bernhard
  • Gaspar, Ví­tor

Abstract

We show how in a Blanchard-Yaari, overlapping generations framework, perfect substitutability of government bonds in Monetary Union tempts governments to exploit the enlarged common pool of savings. In Nash equilibrium all governments increase their bond financed transfers to current generations (prosperity effect) at the expense of future generations (posterity effect). The resulting deficit bias occurs even if one assumes that before Monetary Union countries had eliminated their deficit bias by designing appropriate domestic institutions. The paper provides a rationale for an increased focus on fiscal discipline in Monetary Union, without the need to assume imperfect credibility of existing Treaty provisions or to refer to extreme situations involving sovereign default. We draw on existing empirical evidence to argue that the degree of government bond substitutability within the European Monetary Union is an order of magnitude larger than in the global economy. JEL Classification: D62, E61, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Detken, Carsten & Winkler, Bernhard & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2004. "On prosperity and posterity: the need for fiscal discipline in a monetary union," Working Paper Series 420, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004420
    Note: 229418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp420.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482, Elsevier.
    2. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-571, October.
    3. Fischer, Stanley, 1979. "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1433-1439, November.
    4. Baele, Lieven & Ferrando, Annalisa & Hördahl, Peter & Krylova, Elizaveta & Monnet, Cyril, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    5. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    6. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 369, European Central Bank.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    8. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    9. Gordon Roger Hall & Gaspar Vitor, 2001. "Home Bias in Portfolios and Taxation of Asset Income," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
    10. Restoy, Fernando, 1996. "Interest rates and fiscal discipline in monetary unions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1629-1646, November.
    11. von Hagen, Jurgen & Harden, Ian J., 1995. "Budget processes and commitment to fiscal discipline," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 771-779, April.
    12. Weil, Philippe, 1987. "Permanent budget deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 393-410, September.
    13. Kearney, Colm & Poti, Valerio, 2006. "Correlation dynamics in European equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 305-321, September.
    14. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2005. "Bond Market and Stock Market Integration in Europe," DNB Working Papers 060, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948, November.
    16. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 411, European Central Bank.
    17. Richard Goss, 2003. "Comment," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 357-362, October.
    18. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-293, June.
    19. Chang, Roberto, 1990. "International coordination of fiscal deficits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 347-366, June.
    20. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
    21. Cohen, Daniel, 1985. "Inflation, wealth and interest rates in an intertemporal optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 73-85, July.
    22. Skintzi, Vasiliki D. & Refenes, Apostolos N., 2006. "Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-40, February.
    23. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    24. Weil, Philippe, 1991. "Is Money Net Wealth?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(1), pages 37-53, February.
    25. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean‐Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Fiscal Discipline as a Social Norm: The European Stability Pact," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(6), pages 1143-1168, December.
    2. Benczes, Istvan, 2011. "Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules," MPRA Paper 34912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1482 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Cooper, R. & Kempf, H. & Peled, D., 2009. "Monetary rules and the spillover of regional fiscal policies in a federation," Working papers 233, Banque de France.
    5. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9909 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. António Afonso, 2007. "Public finances in Portugal: a brief longrun view," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe’s hard fix: the Euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 181-196, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond market integration; common pool; European Monetary Union; fiscal discipline; fiscal rules; fiscal spillover effects; overlapping generations;

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.