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Endogenous debt crises

Author

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  • Cohen, Daniel
  • Villemot, Sébastien

Abstract

We distinguish two types of debt crises: those that are the outcome of exogenous shocks (to productivity growth for instance) and those that are endogenously created, either by self-fulfilling panic in financial markets or by the reckless behavior of "Panglossian" borrowers. After Krugman, we characterize as "Panglossian" those borrowers who only focus on their best growth prospects, anticipating to default on their debt if hit by an adverse shock, rationally ignoring the risk of default. We apply these categories empirically to the data. We show that, taken together, endogenous crises are powerful explanations of debt crises, more important for instance than the sheer effect of growth on a country's solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Endogenous debt crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campos, Camila F.S. & Jaimovich, Dany & Panizza, Ugo, 2006. "The unexplained part of public debt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 228-243, September.
    2. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    3. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    4. Chamon, Marcos, 2007. "Can debt crises be self-fulfilling?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 234-244, January.
    5. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8151, January.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2014. "An analysis of eurobonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 91-111.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012. "The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe," Working Papers halshs-00692038, HAL.
    2. Petr Jakubík & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 102-117.
    3. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2015. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: Can Monetary Policy Really Help?," 2015 Meeting Papers 925, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012. "The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe," PSE Working Papers halshs-00692038, HAL.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery Of The Printing Press: Monetary Policy And Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371, December.
    6. repec:eee:inecon:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:119-134 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Self-fulfilling crises; Sovereign debt;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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