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Output And Unemployment Dynamics In Transition

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  • Dehejia, Vivek
  • Dwyer, Douglas

Abstract

This paper examines transition dynamics in a search economy. We contrast two extreme cases: a completely unexpected reform and a fully anticipated reform. We view the former as a metaphor for a reform being announced and implemented with immediate effect, the latter as a metaphor for a reform being announced in advance of its implementation. In contrast to models with convex adjustment costs, we show that announcing the reform in advance leads to stagnation in anticipation of the reform and output cycles after the implementation that are more volatile than if a reform of identical magnitude had been implemented immediately. This provides, therefore, an argument in favour of immediately implementing a reform as against announcing it in advance with a delayed implementation. One could interpret this is an argument in favour of 'shock therapy' as against 'gradualism', where the latter has the specific connotation of delaying reform (rather than sequencing it slowly).

Suggested Citation

  • Dehejia, Vivek & Dwyer, Douglas, 2000. "Output And Unemployment Dynamics In Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2450
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dehejia, Vivek H., 2001. "Optimal restructuring under a political constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1989-2006, December.
    2. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Paul, Christopher, 1997. "Differential-difference equations in economics: On the numerical solution of vintage capital growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 347-362.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Iwasaki & Taku Suzuki, 2016. "Radicalism Versus Gradualism: An Analytical Survey Of The Transition Strategy Debate," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 807-834, September.
    2. Vivek Dehejia & Douglas Dwyer, 2004. "Output and unemployment dynamics in transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 69-81.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adjustment costs; Policy reform; Transition dynamics; Industry restructuring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • P10 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - General

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