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Output And Unemployment Dynamics In Transition

  • Dehejia, Vivek
  • Dwyer, Douglas W

This paper examines transition dynamics in a search economy. We contrast two extreme cases: a completely unexpected reform and a fully anticipated reform. We view the former as a metaphor for a reform being announced and implemented with immediate effect, the latter as a metaphor for a reform being announced in advance of its implementation. In contrast to models with convex adjustment costs, we show that announcing the reform in advance leads to stagnation in anticipation of the reform and output cycles after the implementation that are more volatile than if a reform of identical magnitude had been implemented immediately. This provides, therefore, an argument in favour of immediately implementing a reform as against announcing it in advance with a delayed implementation. One could interpret this is an argument in favour of 'shock therapy' as against 'gradualism', where the latter has the specific connotation of delaying reform (rather than sequencing it slowly).

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2450.

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Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2450
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  1. Joao Gomes & Jeremy Greenwood & Sergio Rebelo, 1997. "Equilibrium Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Tommasi, Mariano & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Where are we in the Political Economy of Reform?," Working Papers 95-20, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126, November.
  4. Vivek H. Dehejia, 1997. "Optimal Restructuring Under a Political Constraint: A General Equilibrium Approach," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 35, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Aghion, P. & Blanchard, O.J., 1993. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," Working papers 93-8, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Atkeson, Andrew & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1996. "Social Insurance and Transition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 377-401, May.
  8. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-31, September.
  9. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Paul, Christopher, 1997. "Differential-difference equations in economics: On the numerical solution of vintage capital growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 347-362.
  10. Boucekkine, Raouf & Germain, Marc & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 333-348, June.
  11. Micael Castanheira De Moura & Gérard Roland, 2000. "The optimal speed of transition: a general equilibrium analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  12. Dehejia, Vivek & Dwyer, Douglas W, 2000. "Output And Unemployment Dynamics In Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 1997. "Industry Evolution and Transition: A Neoclassical Benchmark," NBER Working Papers 6005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
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