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Output And Unemployment Dynamics In Transition

Author

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  • Dehejia, Vivek
  • Dwyer, Douglas W

Abstract

This paper examines transition dynamics in a search economy. We contrast two extreme cases: a completely unexpected reform and a fully anticipated reform. We view the former as a metaphor for a reform being announced and implemented with immediate effect, the latter as a metaphor for a reform being announced in advance of its implementation. In contrast to models with convex adjustment costs, we show that announcing the reform in advance leads to stagnation in anticipation of the reform and output cycles after the implementation that are more volatile than if a reform of identical magnitude had been implemented immediately. This provides, therefore, an argument in favour of immediately implementing a reform as against announcing it in advance with a delayed implementation. One could interpret this is an argument in favour of 'shock therapy' as against 'gradualism', where the latter has the specific connotation of delaying reform (rather than sequencing it slowly).

Suggested Citation

  • Dehejia, Vivek & Dwyer, Douglas W, 2000. "Output And Unemployment Dynamics In Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2450
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dehejia, Vivek H., 2001. "Optimal restructuring under a political constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1989-2006, December.
    2. Vivek Dehejia & Douglas Dwyer, 2004. "Output and unemployment dynamics in transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 69-81.
    3. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Paul, Christopher, 1997. "Differential-difference equations in economics: On the numerical solution of vintage capital growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 347-362.
    4. Gomes, Joao & Greenwood, Jeremy & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Equilibrium unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 109-152, August.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dehejia, Vivek, 1997. "Optimal Restructuring Under a Political Constraint: A General Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Boucekkine, Raouf & Germain, Marc & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 333-348, June.
    8. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-931, September.
    9. Atkeson, Andrew & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1996. "Social Insurance and Transition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 377-401, May.
    10. Mariano Tommasi & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Where are we in the political economy of reform?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 187-238.
    11. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gerard, 2000. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 219-239, February.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
    13. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Iwasaki & Taku Suzuki, 2016. "Radicalism Versus Gradualism: An Analytical Survey Of The Transition Strategy Debate," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 807-834, September.
    2. Vivek Dehejia & Douglas Dwyer, 2004. "Output and unemployment dynamics in transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 69-81.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adjustment Costs; Industry Restructuring; Policy Reform; Transition Dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • P10 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - General

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