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Output and unemployment dynamics in transition

  • Vivek Dehejia
  • Douglas Dwyer

This paper examines transition dynamics in a search economy. We contrast two extreme cases: a completely unexpected reform and a fully anticipated reform. We show that announcing the reform in advance leads to stagnation in anticipation and output cycles after the implementation, that are more volatile than had a reform of identical magnitude been implemented immediately. However, the more volatile output trajectory of the anticipated case yields a higher PDV of output than an unanticipated reform of equal magnitude. This suggests that an anticipated reform is better than an unanticipated reform, even though the former induces greater volatility.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1384128042000202379
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 69-81

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:69-81
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  1. Joao Gomes & Jeremy Greenwood & Sergio Rebelo, 1997. "Equilibrium Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Paul, Christopher, 1997. "Differential-difference equations in economics: On the numerical solution of vintage capital growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 347-362.
  3. Mariano Tommasi, 1995. "Where are we in the Political Economy of Reform?," UCLA Economics Working Papers 733, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 1989. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," NBER Working Papers 3185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Vivek H. Dehejia & Douglas W. Dwyer, 2004. "Output and Unemployment Dynamics in Transition," Carleton Economic Papers 04-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2004.
  6. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1995. "Social insurance and transition," Staff Report 202, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
  8. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gerard, 2000. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 219-39, February.
  9. Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael R., 1997. "Disorganization," Scholarly Articles 3659691, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Vivek H. Dehejia, 1997. "Optimal Restructuring Under a Political Constraint: A General Equilibrium Approach," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 35, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Boucekkine, R. & Germain, M. & Licandro, O., . "Replacement echoes in the vintage capital growth model," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1275, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  13. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 1997. "Industry Evolution and Transition: A Neoclassical Benchmark," NBER Working Papers 6005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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