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Has the Eurozone Become Less Fragile? Some Empirical Tests

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  • Paul De Grauwe
  • Yuemei Ji

Abstract

In this paper we provide empirical evidence documenting the nature of the Eurozone’s fragility. We find that during periods of turmoil, financial markets have tended to impose strong programs of austerity on member countries of the Eurozone. This confirms the evidence we found in a previous paper (De Grauwe and Ji(2013)). In addition we find that the panic-induced austerity, as it occurs mainly during periods of recession, has the effect of reducing the power of the automatic stabilizers in the government budgets, thereby making the economic downturns more intense. We find evidence that this feature has been present in the Eurozone. Our policy conclusion is that the institutional changes that have been introduced in the Eurozone since the start of the sovereign debt crisis are insufficient to safeguard the Eurozone from future crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2015. "Has the Eurozone Become Less Fragile? Some Empirical Tests," CESifo Working Paper Series 5163, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5163
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    1. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    2. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
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    5. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    6. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    8. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 12, pages 297-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Karl Aiginger, 2016. "New Dynamics for Europe: Reaping the Benefits of Socio-ecological Transition – Part I: Synthesis. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 11," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58791.
    3. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.
    4. Bole, Velimir & Oblak, Ana & Prašnikar, Janez & Trobec, Domen, 2018. "Financial frictions and indebtedness of Balkan firms: A comparison with Mediterranean and Central European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 790-809.
    5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2016. "Co-movements of non-Euro EU currencies with the Euro," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 376-383.
    6. Viktor Dinev, 2017. "“Macroeconomic Imbalances” Factor for the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 142-177.
    7. Bauer, Christian & Adolph, Marc-Patrick, 2021. "Limited joint liability in structured Eurobonds: Pricing the political costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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