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Has the Eurozone become less fragile? Some empirical tests

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  • De Grauwe, Paul
  • Ji, Yuemei

Abstract

In this paper we provide empirical evidence documenting the nature of the Eurozone’s fragility. We find that during periods of turmoil, financial markets have tended to impose strong programs of austerity on member countries of the Eurozone. This confirms the evidence we found in a previous paper (De Grauwe and Ji(2013)). In addition we find that the panic-induced austerity, as it occurs mainly during periods of recession, has the effect of reducing the power of the automatic stabilizers in the government budgets, thereby making the economic downturns more intense. We find evidence that this feature has been present in the Eurozone. Our policy conclusion is that the institutional changes that have been introduced in the Eurozone since the start of the sovereign debt crisis are insufficient to safeguard the Eurozone from future crises.
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  • De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2015. "Has the Eurozone become less fragile? Some empirical tests," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 404-414.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:3:p:404-414
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.03.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Aiginger, 2016. "New Dynamics for Europe: Reaping the Benefits of Socio-ecological Transition – Part I: Synthesis. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 11," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58791.
    2. Bole, Velimir & Oblak, Ana & Prašnikar, Janez & Trobec, Domen, 2018. "Financial frictions and indebtedness of Balkan firms: A comparison with Mediterranean and Central European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 790-809.
    3. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2016. "Co-movements of non-Euro EU currencies with the Euro," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 376-383.
    4. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.
    5. León Padilla & Ángel Rodriguez García-Brazales, 2021. "Can South America form an optimal monetary area? A structural vector autoregression analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 309-329, May.
    6. Viktor Dinev, 2017. "“Macroeconomic Imbalances” Factor for the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 142-177.
    7. Bauer, Christian & Adolph, Marc-Patrick, 2021. "Limited joint liability in structured Eurobonds: Pricing the political costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurozone; Structural fragility; Panic-induced austerity; Automatic stabilizers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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