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Unemployment and Debt Dynamics in a Highly Indebted Small Open Economy

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  • Burkhard Heer
  • Stefan Franz Schubert

Abstract

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a total factor productivity shock and an interest rate risk premium shock in a highly indebted open economy. In contrast to the standard open economy framework, search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced. We find that a negative total factor productivity shock primarily has effects on the economy’s production side and on welfare, but not on its stock of foreign debt and the country specific risk premium, and large part of the adjustment happens in the short run. In contrast, a pure increase in the country specific risk premium causes substantial dynamics and a considerable reduction in foreign debt, allowing higher consumption in the long run and creating an intertemporal welfare gain, even though unemployment increases strongly in the short run. A 50% haircut of foreign debt significantly reduces the initial response of the unemployment rate. In case of a temporary productivity shock, sticky wages imply smaller employment, but generate higher welfare than flexible wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Burkhard Heer & Stefan Franz Schubert, 2011. "Unemployment and Debt Dynamics in a Highly Indebted Small Open Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 3497, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3497
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    Cited by:

    1. Kónya, István & Benczúr, Péter, 2013. "Kamatfelár, hitelválság és mérlegalkalmazkodás egy kis, nyitott gazdaságban
      [Interest premium, credit crisis and balance-sheet adjustment in a small open economy]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 940-964.
    2. repec:red:issued:14-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Peter Benczur & Istvan Konya, 2016. "Interest Premium, Sudden Stop, and Adjustment in a Small Open Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 271-295, July.
    4. Chen, Kuan-Jen & Chu, Angus C. & Lai, Ching-Chong, 2014. "Home Production and Small Open Economy Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 59020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maussner & Bernd Suessmuth, 2018. "Cyclical Asset Returns in the Consumption and Investment Goods Sector," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 51-70, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; debt; interest rate premium; haircut; sticky wages;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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