IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_12618.html

Statutory Incidence Matters: Evidence from a Policy Intervention in the German Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Jörg Claussen
  • David Streich
  • Katerina Vlieg
  • Steffen Zetzmann

Abstract

We study a German policy intervention that shifted the statutory incidence of real estate agent commissions from buyers to sellers. Liability-side equivalence predicts no effect on economic incidence as sellers are expected to pass on the additional burden through higher prices. We use real estate listings and transactions and exploit object-level susceptibility to the intervention in a difference-in-differences analysis. Contrary to economic theory, prices do not increase and sellers bear the burden of the intervention. Consistent with a lack of pass-through, sellers reduce demand for brokerage, especially when brokers are expensive and offer little benefit. Taken together, our results suggest that the intervention was effective at relieving homebuyers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jörg Claussen & David Streich & Katerina Vlieg & Steffen Zetzmann, 2026. "Statutory Incidence Matters: Evidence from a Policy Intervention in the German Housing Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 12618, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12618.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthias Weber & Arthur Schram, 2017. "The Non‐equivalence of Labour Market Taxes: A Real‐effort Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 2187-2215, September.
    2. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    3. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    4. John Benjamin & G Jud & G Sirmans, 2000. "What Do We Know About Real Estate Brokerage?," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 5-30, January.
    5. Besley, Timothy & Meads, Neil & Surico, Paolo, 2014. "The incidence of transaction taxes: Evidence from a stamp duty holiday," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 61-70.
    6. Steven D. Levitt & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Market Distortions When Agents Are Better Informed: The Value of Information in Real Estate Transactions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 599-611, November.
    7. Adam, Stuart & Phillips, David & Roantree, Barra, 2019. "35 years of reforms: A panel analysis of the incidence of, and employee and employer responses to, social security contributions in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 29-50.
    8. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    9. Sebastien Bradley & Naomi E. Feldman, 2020. "Hidden Baggage: Behavioral Responses to Changes in Airline Ticket Tax Disclosure," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 58-87, November.
    10. Carozzi, Felipe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Yu, Xiaolun, 2024. "On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: Evidence from help to buy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Rainald Borck & Dirk Engelmann & Wieland Müller & Hans‐Theo Normann, 2002. "Tax Liability‐Side Equivalence in Experimental Posted‐Offer Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 672-682, January.
    12. Fox, William F. & Hargaden, Enda Patrick & Luna, LeAnn, 2022. "Statutory incidence and sales tax compliance: Evidence from Wayfair," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    13. Nina Biljanovska & Mr. Chenxu Fu & Ms. Deniz O Igan, 2023. "Housing Affordability: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2023/247, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Moritz Schularick & Jonas Zdrzalek, 2023. "German Real Estate Index (GREIX)," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 231, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    15. Rutherford, R.C. & Springer, T.M. & Yavas, A., 2005. "Conflicts between principals and agents: evidence from residential brokerage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 627-665, June.
    16. Carbonnier, Clément & Malgouyres, Clément & Py, Loriane & Urvoy, Camille, 2022. "Who benefits from tax incentives? The heterogeneous wage incidence of a tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    17. Blumkin, Tomer & Pinhas, Haim & Zultan, Ro’i, 2020. "Wage Subsidies and Fair Wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Ruffle, Bradley J., 2005. "Tax and subsidy incidence equivalence theories: experimental evidence from competitive markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(8), pages 1519-1542, August.
    19. repec:ehl:lserod:124116 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Brittain, John A, 1971. "The Incidence of Social Security Payroll Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 110-125, March.
    21. Marion, Justin & Muehlegger, Erich, 2011. "Fuel tax incidence and supply conditions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(9-10), pages 1202-1212, October.
    22. Yannis M. Ioannides & L. Rachel Ngai, 2025. "Housing and Inequality," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 916-963, September.
    23. John D. Benjamin & G. Donald Jud & G. Stacy Sirmans, 2000. "What Do We Know About Real Estate Brokerage?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 20(1), pages 5-30.
    24. Greg Buchak & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2024. "NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare," NBER Working Papers 32855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Krolage, Carla & Neumeier, Florian, 2025. "Who bears the burden of real estate transfer taxes? Evidence from the German housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    26. Emily Horton & Cameron LaPoint & Byron Lutz & Nathan Seegert & Jared Walczak, 2024. "Property Tax Policy and Housing Affordability," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 861-901.
    27. Steven J. Kachelmeier & Stephen T. Limberg & Michael S. Schadewald, 1994. "Experimental Evidence of Market Reactions to New Consumption Taxes," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 505-545, March.
    28. Julius Stoll, 2023. "How not to Reduce Commission Rates of Real Estate Agents: Evidence From Germany," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0026, Berlin School of Economics.
    29. Riedl, Arno & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2005. "Tax liability side equivalence in gift-exchange labor markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(11-12), pages 2369-2382, December.
    30. Saiz, Albert, 2023. "The Global Housing Affordability Crisis: Policy Options and Strategies," IZA Policy Papers 203, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blumkin, Tomer & Pinhas, Haim & Zultan, Ro’i, 2020. "Wage Subsidies and Fair Wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Rupert Sausgruber & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2008. "Tax Salience, Voting, and Deliberation," Working Papers 2009-25, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    3. Arno Riedl, 2009. "Behavioral and Experimental Economics Can Inform Public Policy: Some Thoughts," CESifo Working Paper Series 2902, CESifo.
    4. Huang, Lingbo & Tiezzi, Silvia & Xiao, Erte, 2022. "Tax liability side equivalence and time delayed externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Doerrenberg, Philipp & Duncan, Denvil, 2014. "Tax Incidence in the Presence of Tax Evasion," IZA Discussion Papers 8137, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Werner, Peter & Riedl, Arno, 2018. "The role of experiments for policy design," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    7. Tai-Sen He, 2020. "The framing effect of tax–transfer systems," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(2), pages 213-225, December.
    8. Andrea Morone & Francesco Nemore & Simone Nuzzo, 2018. "Experimental evidence on tax salience and tax incidence," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 20(4), pages 582-612, August.
    9. Kai A. Konrad & Florian Morath & Wieland Müller, 2014. "Taxation and Market Power," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 173-202, February.
    10. Blumkin, Tomer & Ruffle, Bradley J. & Ganun, Yosef, 2012. "Are income and consumption taxes ever really equivalent? Evidence from a real-effort experiment with real goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1200-1219.
    11. Han, Lu & Strange, William C., 2015. "The Microstructure of Housing Markets," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 813-886, Elsevier.
    12. Rupert Sausgruber & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Testing the Mill hypothesis of fiscal illusion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 39-68, January.
    13. Tomer Blumkin & Haim Pinhas & Ro'i Zultan, 2017. "Leveraging Wage Subsidies to Facilitate Fair Wages and Increase Social Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 6597, CESifo.
    14. Hirofumi Kurokawa & Tomoharu Mori & Fumio Ohtake, 2016. "A Choice Experiment on Taxes: Are Income and Consumption Taxes Equivalent?," ISER Discussion Paper 0966, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    15. Alda Botelho Azevedo & Inês Gonçalves & João Pereira dos Santos, 2025. "Can’t Buy Me Home – Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis," GEE Papers 191, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jun 2025.
    16. Daisy J. Huang & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Chung-Yi Tse, 2018. "What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 431-475, October.
    17. Ashok Kaul & Gregor Pfeifer & Stefan Witte, 2016. "The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: Evidence from the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1093-1125, December.
    18. Steven Stelk & Leonard V. Zumpano, 2017. "Can Real Estate Brokers Affect Home Prices Under Extreme Market Conditions?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 51-73.
    19. Botelho Azevedo, Alda & Gonçalves, Inês & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2025. "Can’t Buy Me Home: Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 18073, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2025. "The Impact of Governmental Regulations on Housing Market: Findings of a Meta-Study of Empirical Literature," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2113, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.