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Testing weak exogeneity in multiplicative error models

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Empirical market microstructure literature widely employs the non-linear and non-Gaussian multiplicative error class of models (MEMs) in modelling the dynamics of trading duration and financial marks. It routinely maintains the weak exogeneity of duration vis- -vis marks in estimations. However, microstructure theory states that trade duration, volume and transaction prices are simultaneously determined. We propose Lagrange-multiplier (LM) tests for weak exogeneity for the MEMs. Our LM tests are extensions of the weak exogeneity tests applicable to VAR or VECM models with Gaussian distributions. Empirical assessments show that (i) weak exogeneity is widely rejected by the data in the MEMs and (ii) the failure of weak exogeneity seriously biases parameter estimates. We hope our tests will be of interest in future empirical applications.

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  • Luintel, Kul B & Xu, Yongdeng, 2013. "Testing weak exogeneity in multiplicative error models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/6, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2013/6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weak exogeneity; Multiplicative error model; LM test; Market microstructure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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