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Time and the price impact of a trade: A structural approach

Author

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  • Grammig, Joachim G.
  • Theissen, Erik
  • Wünsche, Oliver

Abstract

We revisit the role of time in measuring the price impact of trades using a new empirical method that combines spread decomposition and dynamic duration modeling. Previous studies which have addressed the issue in a vector-autoregressive framework conclude that times when markets are most active are times when there is an increased presence of informed trading. Our empirical analysis based on recent European and U.S. data offers challenging new evidence. We find that as trade intensity increases, the informativeness of trades tends to decrease. This result is consistent with the predictions of Admati and Pfleiderer's (1988) rational expectations model, and also with models of dynamic trading like those proposed by Parlour (1998) and Foucault (1999). Our results cast doubt on the common wisdom that fast markets bear particularly high adverse selection risks for uninformed market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Grammig, Joachim G. & Theissen, Erik & Wünsche, Oliver, 2011. "Time and the price impact of a trade: A structural approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Biais, Bruno & Glosten, Larry & Spatt, Chester, 2005. "Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 217-264, May.
    2. Spierdijk, Laura, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the role of the trading intensity in information dissemination on the NYSE," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 163-184, March.
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    4. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
    5. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
    6. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.
    7. Parlour, Christine A, 1998. "Price Dynamics in Limit Order Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 789-816.
    8. Anthony Hall & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2006. "Order aggressiveness and order book dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 973-1005, January.
    9. Furfine, Craig, 2007. "When is inter-transaction time informative?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 310-332, June.
    10. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
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    12. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2004. "Order aggressiveness in limit order book markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 53-74, January.
    13. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
    14. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryu, Doojin, 2016. "Considering all microstructure effects: The extension of a trade indicator model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 107-110.
    2. Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis Angelos, 2016. "Why do carbon prices and price volatility change?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 76-94.
    3. Chung, Kee H. & Park, Seongkyu “Gilbert” & Ryu, Doojin, 2016. "Trade duration, informed trading, and option moneyness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 395-411.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price Impact of Trades; Trading Intensity; Dynamic Duration Models; Spread Decomposition Models; Adverse Selection Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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