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Estimating the Price Impact of Trades in an High-Frequency Microstructure Model with Jumps

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Jondeau

    (University of Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Jérôme Lahaye

    (Fordham University)

  • Michael Rockinger

    (University of Lausanne(HEC-Lausanne), Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices can be altered by both the size and direction of trades, and the effects of buy-initiated and sell-initiated trades are different. We estimate this model using tick-by-tick data for 12 large-capitalization stocks traded on the Euronext-Paris Bourse. We find that, at tick frequency, the overnight return, the intraday jumps, and the continuous innovations represent approximately 7%, 8.5%, and 36.7% of the total variation of stock returns. The microstructure model explains on average 47.7% of the total variation. Once jumps are filtered and parameters are estimated in real time, we also find that the price impact of trades is symmetric on average. However, the price of highly liquid stocks with a large proportion of sell-initiated orders tends to be more sensitive to buy trades, whereas the price of less liquid stocks with a large proportion of buy-initiated orders tends to be more sensitive to sell trades.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Jondeau & Jérôme Lahaye & Michael Rockinger, 2013. "Estimating the Price Impact of Trades in an High-Frequency Microstructure Model with Jumps," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-47, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Feb 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1347
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    2. Endres, Sylvia & Stübinger, Johannes, 2017. "Optimal trading strategies for Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 17/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    3. Usman Arief & Zaäfri Ananto Husodo, 2021. "Private Information from Extreme Price Movements (Empirical Evidences from Southeast Asia Countries)," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Recent Developments in Asian Economics International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, volume 28, pages 221-242, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Stübinger, Johannes & Walter, Dominik & Knoll, Julian, 2017. "Financial market predictions with Factorization Machines: Trading the opening hour based on overnight social media data," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 19/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. Christopher Krauss & Klaus Herrmann, 2017. "On the Power and Size Properties of Cointegration Tests in the Light of High-Frequency Stylized Facts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher & Treichel, Alex, 2018. "Machine learning for time series forecasting - a simulation study," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    7. Johannes St binger & Jens Bredthauer, 2017. "Statistical Arbitrage Pairs Trading with High-frequency Data," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 650-662.
    8. Tsai, Ping Chen & Eom, Cheoljun & Wang, Chou Wen, 2024. "State-dependent intra-day volatility pattern and its impact on price jump detection - Evidence from international equity indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    9. Stübinger, Johannes & Endres, Sylvia, 2017. "Pairs trading with a mean-reverting jump-diffusion model on high-frequency data," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 10/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    10. Endres, Sylvia & Stübinger, Johannes, 2018. "A flexible regime switching model with pairs trading application to the S&P 500 high-frequency stock returns," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 07/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    11. Clegg, Matthew & Krauss, Christopher, 2016. "Pairs trading with partial cointegration," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    12. Johannes Stübinger & Sylvia Endres, 2018. "Pairs trading with a mean-reverting jump–diffusion model on high-frequency data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1735-1751, October.
    13. Chiyachantana, Chiraphol & Jain, Pankaj K. & Jiang, Christine & Sharma, Vivek, 2017. "Permanent price impact asymmetry of trades with institutional constraints," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Pham, Manh Cuong & Anderson, Heather Margot & Duong, Huu Nhan & Lajbcygier, Paul, 2020. "The effects of trade size and market depth on immediate price impact in a limit order book market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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