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Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos B. Carneiro
  • I'uri H. Ferreira
  • Marcelo C. Medeiros
  • Henrique F. Pires
  • Eduardo Zilberman

Abstract

We adopt an artificial counterfactual approach to assess the impact of lockdowns on the short-run evolution of the number of cases and deaths in some US states. To do so, we explore the different timing in which US states adopted lockdown policies, and divide them among treated and control groups. For each treated state, we construct an artificial counterfactual. On average, and in the very short-run, the counterfactual accumulated number of cases would be two times larger if lockdown policies were not implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos B. Carneiro & I'uri H. Ferreira & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Henrique F. Pires & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach," Papers 2009.13484, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2009.13484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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