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COVID-19: Reduced forms have gone viral, but what do they tell us?

Author

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  • Léa BOU SLEIMAN

    (CREST, Polytechnique.)

  • Germain GAUTHIER

    (CREST, Polytechnique.)

Abstract

This paper discusses mitigation policy evaluation in the context of a pandemic. We take the SIRD model as a benchmark for epidemic dynamics and describe the theoretical implications of these dynamics for reduced form estimation. We show that, without additional theoretical structure, agnostic reduced form estimations that have been used in the literature are subject to an omitted variable bias, which in turn affects both the identification of treatment effects and counterfactual analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Léa BOU SLEIMAN & Germain GAUTHIER, 2020. "COVID-19: Reduced forms have gone viral, but what do they tell us?," Working Papers 2020-32, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, revised 18 Jan 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2020-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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