IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2004.06098.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • James H. Fowler
  • Seth J. Hill
  • Remy Levin
  • Nick Obradovich

Abstract

Governments issue "stay at home" orders to reduce the spread of contagious diseases, but the magnitude of such orders' effectiveness is uncertain. In the United States these orders were not coordinated at the national level during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which creates an opportunity to use spatial and temporal variation to measure the policies' effect with greater accuracy. Here, we combine data on the timing of stay-at-home orders with daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and fatalities at the county level in the United States. We estimate the effect of stay-at-home orders using a difference-in-differences design that accounts for unmeasured local variation in factors like health systems and demographics and for unmeasured temporal variation in factors like national mitigation actions and access to tests. Compared to counties that did not implement stay-at-home orders, the results show that the orders are associated with a 30.2 percent (11.0 to 45.2) reduction in weekly cases after one week, a 40.0 percent (23.4 to 53.0) reduction after two weeks, and a 48.6 percent (31.1 to 61.7) reduction after three weeks. Stay-at-home orders are also associated with a 59.8 percent (18.3 to 80.2) reduction in weekly fatalities after three weeks. These results suggest that stay-at-home orders reduced confirmed cases by 390,000 (170,000 to 680,000) and fatalities by 41,000 (27,000 to 59,000) within the first three weeks in localities where they were implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • James H. Fowler & Seth J. Hill & Remy Levin & Nick Obradovich, 2020. "The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States," Papers 2004.06098, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.06098
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.06098
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Goodman-Bacon, 2018. "Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing," NBER Working Papers 25018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    3. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    4. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City," NBER Working Papers 26917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    2. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Unequal welfare costs of staying at home across socioeconomic and demographic groups," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 347-365, July.
    3. Francis de Véricourt & Huseyin Gurkan & Shouqiang Wang, 2021. "Informing the Public About a Pandemic," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6350-6357, October.
    4. Francis de Véricourt, & Huseyin Gurkan, & Shouqiang Wang,, 2020. "Informing the public about a pandemic," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-20-03, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
    5. Francis de Véricourt, & Huseyin Gurkan, & Shouqiang Wang,, 2020. "Informing the public about a pandemic," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-20-03, ESMT European School of Management and Technology, revised 11 Feb 2021.
    6. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2022. "Mass gathering events and the spread of infectious diseases: Evidence from the early growth phase of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Germain Gauthier, 2021. "On the Use of Two-Way Fixed Effects Models for Policy Evaluation During Pandemics," Papers 2106.10949, arXiv.org.
    8. Shenoy, Ajay & Sharma, Bhavyaa & Xu, Guanghong & Kapoor, Rolly & Rho, Haedong Aiden & Sangha, Kinpritma, 2022. "God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Marcén, Miriam & Morales, Marina & Sevilla, Almudena, 2023. "Schooling and parental labor supply: evidence from COVID-19 school closures in the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122402, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Alexandre K Ligo & Emerson Mahoney & Jeffrey Cegan & Benjamin D Trump & Andrew S Jin & Maksim Kitsak & Jesse Keenan & Igor Linkov, 2021. "Relationship among state reopening policies, health outcomes and economic recovery through first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Carlos B. Carneiro & I'uri H. Ferreira & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Henrique F. Pires & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach," Papers 2009.13484, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    12. Paolo Nicola Barbieri & Beatrice Bonini, 2021. "Political orientation and adherence to social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 483-504, July.
    13. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Marcén, Miriam & Morales, Marina & Sevilla, Almudena, 2020. "COVID-19 School Closures and Parental Labor Supply in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 13827, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Yun Li & Moming Li & Megan Rice & Haoyuan Zhang & Dexuan Sha & Mei Li & Yanfang Su & Chaowei Yang, 2021. "The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID-19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-23, January.
    15. Martin Huber & Henrika Langen, 2020. "Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Qifeng Wan & Xuanhua Xu & Kyle Hunt & Jun Zhuang, 2022. "Stay Home or Not? Modeling Individuals’ Decisions During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 319-336, December.
    17. Frank Nielsen & Gautier Marti & Sumanta Ray & Saumyadipta Pyne, 2021. "Clustering Patterns Connecting COVID-19 Dynamics and Human Mobility Using Optimal Transport," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 83(1), pages 167-184, May.
    18. Fayaz Farkhad, Bita & Albarracín, Dolores, 2021. "Insights on the implications of COVID-19 mitigation measures for mental health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    19. Léa BOU SLEIMAN & Germain GAUTHIER, 2020. "COVID-19: Reduced forms have gone viral, but what do they tell us?," Working Papers 2020-32, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, revised 18 Jan 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow, 2021. "Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1445-1472, October.
    2. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    4. Ichev, Riste & Valentinčič, Aljoša, 2025. "The effect of impact investing on performance of private firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    5. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Katrin Huber & Geske Rolvering, 2023. "Public child care and mothers’ career trajectories," Working Papers 228, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    7. Shun-Yang Lee & Julian Runge & Daniel Yoo & Yakov Bart & Anett Gyurak & J. W. Schneider, 2023. "COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?," Papers 2307.09035, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    8. Coury, Michael & Falconer, Liam & La Nauze, Andrea, 2024. "Wildfire smoke and private provision of public air-quality monitoring," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Francisca M. Antman, 2022. "De facto immigration enforcement, ICE raid awareness, and worker engagement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 373-391, January.
    10. Ricardo Dahis & Christiane Szerman, 2023. "Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    11. Anderson, D. Mark & Liang, Yang & Sabia, Joseph J., 2022. "Mandatory Seatbelt Laws and Traffic Fatalities: A Reassessment," IZA Discussion Papers 15843, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    13. Martti Kaila & Emily Nix & Krista Riukula, 2021. "Disparate Impacts of Job Loss by Parental Income and Implications for Intergenerational Mobility," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Yang Haodong & Liu Jialin & Wang Gaofeng, 2025. "Knowledge Innovation Effect of University Computing Power in China: Evidence from the top500 Supercomputers," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(1), pages 1-30, February.
    15. Stefan Bauernschuster & Michael Grimm & Cathy M. Hajo, 2023. "The Impact of Margaret Sanger’s Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality," CESifo Working Paper Series 10421, CESifo.
    16. Lan, Xiujuan & Hu, Zheneng & Wen, Chuanhao, 2023. "Does the opening of high-speed rail enhance urban entrepreneurial activity? Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Fabio Bothner & Annette Elisabeth Töller & Paul Philipp Schnase, 2022. "Do Lawsuits by ENGOs Improve Environmental Quality? Results from the Field of Air Pollution Policy in Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    18. Li, Qianqian & Zhao, Zhengtang & Chen, Tingting, 2024. "The effect of public pension insurance integration on income disparities between urban-rural households: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Silverio-Murillo, Adan & Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren & Rodriguez Tirado, Abel & Balmori de la Miyar, Jose Roberto, 2021. "COVID-19 blues: Lockdowns and mental health-related google searches in Latin America," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    20. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Flaherty Manchester, Colleen & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua & Xiao, Jiusi, 2023. "Are retirement planning tools substitutes or complements to financial capability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 561-573.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.06098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.