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God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks

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  • Shenoy, Ajay
  • Sharma, Bhavyaa
  • Xu, Guanghong
  • Kapoor, Rolly
  • Rho, Haedong Aiden
  • Sangha, Kinpritma

Abstract

We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit.

Suggested Citation

  • Shenoy, Ajay & Sharma, Bhavyaa & Xu, Guanghong & Kapoor, Rolly & Rho, Haedong Aiden & Sangha, Kinpritma, 2022. "God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3jr4k0cm, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt3jr4k0cm
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Garz & Maiting Zhuang, 2024. "Media coverage and pandemic behavior: Evidence from Sweden," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 1319-1367, June.

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