IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uwfswp/201444.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Responding to the Coffee Crisis: What We Can Learn from Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Mehta, A.
  • Chavas, Jean-Paul

Abstract

An econometric model of coffee price dynamics is specified and estimated to capture the evolution of coffee prices at the farm, wholesale and retail levels. It investigates the historical influence of the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) through its effects on yield and planting decisions. In the short run, the ICA caused Brazilian farm prices to become disconnected from international prices. The ICA helped coffee producers to better incorporate current world price information into planting decisions. This created a price cycle that did not exist in non-ICA periods. The low coffee prices experienced since the disintegration of the ICA are consistent with low supply response to price information. Asymmetric price transmission at the retail level helped roasters and retailers benefit from upstream price interventions. Our results urge caution when considering future coffee price interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehta, A. & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the Coffee Crisis: What We Can Learn from Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201444, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Food System Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwfswp:201444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/201444
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durevall, Dick, 2005. "Demand for Coffee: The Role of Prices, Preferences and Market Power," Working Papers in Economics 162, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Bohman, Mary & Jarvis, Lovell & Barichello, Richard, 1996. "Rent Seeking and International Commodity Agreements: The Case of Coffee," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 379-404, January.
    3. Calfat, Germán & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2002. "Government actions to support coffee producers - an investigation of possible measures from the European Union," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 448, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Roberts, Mark J., 1984. "Testing oligopolistic behavior," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 367-383, December.
    6. Otero, Jesus & Milas, Costas, 2001. "Modelling the spot prices of various coffee types," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-641, December.
    7. Feuerstein, Switgard, 2002. "Do coffee roasters benefit from high prices of green coffee?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 89-118, January.
    8. Varangis, Panos & Siegel, Paul & Giovannucci, Daniele & Lewin, Bryan, 2003. "Dealing with the coffee crisis in Central America - impacts and strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2993, The World Bank.
    9. Takamasa Akiyama & John Baffes & Donald Larson & Panos Varangis, 2001. "Commodity Market Reforms : Lessons of Two Decades," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13852, June.
    10. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    11. Ponte, Stefano, 2002. "The 'Latte Revolution'? Regulation, Markets and Consumption in the Global Coffee Chain," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1099-1122, July.
    12. Otero, Jesus G., 2000. "Coffee, economic fluctuations and stabilisation: an intertemporal disequilibrium model with capital market imperfections," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 105-129, June.
    13. Bettendorf, L & Verboven, F, 2000. "Incomplete Transmission of Coffee Bean Prices: Evidence from the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Cardenas, Mauricio, 1994. "Stabilization and redistribution of coffee revenues: A political economy model of commodity marketing boards," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 351-380, August.
    15. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1987. "International commodity agreements: Design and performance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 591-616, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dreyer, Heiko & Anders, Sven M., 2014. "Experience matters - trade duration and survival of coffee exports," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182758, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Bastianin, Andrea & Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 250258, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Genevre Covindassamy & Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Lee, Jun & Gomez, Miguel I., 2011. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Working Papers 126600, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    5. Li, Xi-Le & Saghaian, Sayed, 2014. "The Presence Of Market Power In The Coffee Market: The Case Of Colombian Milds," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170348, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Stavrakoudis, Athanassios & Panagiotou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Price dependence between coffee qualities: a copula model to evaluate asymmetric responses," MPRA Paper 75994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Subervie, Julie, 2011. "Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2239-2246, September.
    8. Jun Lee & Miguel I. Gómez, 2013. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 343-362, June.
    9. Michael S. Webb & Viv B Hall, 2009. "Application Of A Dynamic Panel Data Estimator To Cross-Country Coffee Demand: A Tale Of Two Eras," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uwfswp:201444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dauwius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.