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Responding to the Coffee Crisis: What Can We Learn from Price Dynamics

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  • Mehta, Aashish

    (U of Wisconsin)

  • Chavas, Jean-Paul

    (U of Maryland)

Abstract

We develop a semi-structural price vector autoregression to capture coffee price dynamics over various time horizons. The presence of the International Coffee Agreement is permitted to alter supply responses to price signals through yield and planting effects. In the short run, the ICA caused Brazilian farm prices to become disconnected from international prices. In the long run, the ICA promoted supply response by providing a stable environment in which producers could use current price information to predict future prices. In the intermediate run, it muted supply response by necessitating an institutional price wedge between wholesale and farm level prices. In net, the ICA created a price cycle that does not exist in non-ICA periods. Oxfam's proposal to burn 300 million pounds of coffee will provide temporary relief to farmers, but cannot be used repeatedly as a long term strategy. The low coffee prices experienced since the disintegration of the ICA may be due to the interaction of supply lags, a shift in the composition of coffee demand, and low price response due to price uncertainty. No evidence of asymmetric price transmission is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehta, Aashish & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2004. "Responding to the Coffee Crisis: What Can We Learn from Price Dynamics," Staff Paper Series 472, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:472
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Lee & Miguel I. Gómez, 2013. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 343-362, June.
    2. Bastianin, Andrea & Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 250258, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Genevre Covindassamy & Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Dang Thanh Ha & Gerald Shively, 2008. "Coffee Boom, Coffee Bust and Smallholder Response in Vietnam's Central Highlands," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 312-326, May.
    5. Lee, Jun & Gomez, Miguel I., 2011. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Working Papers 126600, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    6. Li, Xi-Le & Saghaian, Sayed, 2014. "The Presence Of Market Power In The Coffee Market: The Case Of Colombian Milds," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170348, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Tadahiro Nakajima, 2014. "Price Formation of Coffee Beans: New Evidence from the Japanese Market," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 23-30, September.
    8. Dreyer, Heiko & Anders, Sven M., 2014. "Experience matters - trade duration and survival of coffee exports," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182758, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Mehta, Aashish & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the coffee crisis: What can we learn from price dynamics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 282-311, February.
    10. Subervie, Julie, 2011. "Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2239-2246, September.
    11. Michael S. Webb & Viv B Hall, 2009. "Application Of A Dynamic Panel Data Estimator To Cross-Country Coffee Demand: A Tale Of Two Eras," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Mitsuru Igami, 2015. "Market Power in International Commodity Trade: The Case of Coffee," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 225-248, June.
    13. Stavrakoudis, Athanassios & Panagiotou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Price dependence between coffee qualities: a copula model to evaluate asymmetric responses," MPRA Paper 75994, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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