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Whither the price of coffee? An analysis of trends and shocks since the coffee crisis

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  • Atanu Ghoshray

    (Newcastle University Business School, Newcastle University)

  • Emi Mise

    (University of Leicester)

Abstract

This short paper examines two potent issues that affect coffee producers worldwide. First, we estimate whether the real price of coffee received by producers are declining over time, making the coffee growers worse off. Secondly, we estimate how long it takes for exogenous shocks to dissipate, so that farmers can be better informed to manage volatile coffee prices. We find no evidence of any prevalent declining trend, and the time taken for a price shock to dissipate by half can vary widely from 5 to 18 months for individual coffee prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Atanu Ghoshray & Emi Mise, 2025. "Whither the price of coffee? An analysis of trends and shocks since the coffee crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2655-2672, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:68:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-025-02716-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02716-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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