IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/sndecm/v21y2017i1p31-45n6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

RALS-LM unit root test with trend breaks and non-normal errors: application to the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Meng Ming
  • Lee Junsoo

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama, Box 870224, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA)

  • Payne James E.

    (Dean and Professor of Economics, J. Whitney Bunting College of Business, Georgia College and State University, Milledgeville, GA 31061, USA)

Abstract

This study proposes a new unit root test that allows for structural breaks in both the intercept and the slope, and adopts the residual augmented least squares (RALS) procedure to gain improved power when the error term follows a non-normal distribution. The new test using the RALS procedure is more powerful than the usual LM test which does not incorporate information on non-normal errors. Our test is free of nuisance parameters that indicate the locations of structural break. It is also free of the spurious rejection problem. Thus, the rejection of the null hypothesis can be considered as more accurate evidence of stationarity. We apply the new test on the recently extended Grilli and Yang index of 24 commodity series from 1900 to 2007. Our empirical findings provide significant evidence that primary commodity prices are stationary with one or two trend breaks. However, compared with past studies, our findings provide even weaker evidence to support the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng Ming & Lee Junsoo & Payne James E., 2017. "RALS-LM unit root test with trend breaks and non-normal errors: application to the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 31-45, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:1:p:31-45:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2016-0050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2016-0050
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/snde-2016-0050?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, September.
    2. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Im, Kyung So & Schmidt, Peter, 2008. "More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 219-233, May.
    4. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
    6. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
    7. Zanias, George P., 2005. "Testing for trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-59, October.
    8. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    9. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1148-1171, October.
    10. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich & Ming Meng, 2012. "Two-Step LM Unit Root Tests with Trend-Breaks," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 1-8.
    11. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, December.
    12. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Semei Coronado & Jose N. Martinez & Victor Gualajara & Rafael Romero-Meza & Omar Rojas, 2023. "Time-Varying Granger Causality of COVID-19 News on Emerging Financial Markets: The Latin American Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    3. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    4. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.
    5. Ahmed Qahtan, Anwar Saeed & Xu, Helian & Abdo, AL-Barakani, 2021. "Stochastic convergence of disaggregated energy consumption per capita and its catch-up rate: An independent analysis of MENA net oil-exporting and importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Nazif Durmaz & Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyejin Lee & Yanfei Sun, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Mutual Fund Discounts," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    7. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Caglar, Abdullah Emre, 2021. "Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Kris Ivanovski & Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & John Inekwe, 2020. "Convergence in Income Inequality Across Australian States and Territories," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 127-142, February.
    9. Celso-Arellano, Pedro & Gualajara, Victor & Coronado, Semei & Martinez, Jose N. & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impact of the global fear index (covid-19 panic) on the S&P global indices associated with natural resources, agribusiness, energy, metals and mining: Granger Causality and Shannon and Rényi Transfer ," MPRA Paper 117138, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2023.
    10. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris, 2020. "Stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: Evidence from emerging economies, 1921–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Masnun Mahi & Seuk Wai Phoong & Izlin Ismail & Che Ruhana Isa, 2019. "Energy–Finance–Growth Nexus in ASEAN-5 Countries: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    12. William Miles, 2021. "Convergence in the Eurozone: Progress Towards the Goal?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(2), pages 116-133, June.
    13. Mario Gómez & Aitor Ciarreta & Ainhoa Zarraga, 2018. "Linear and Nonlinear Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico 1965–2014," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Winkelried, Diego, 2018. "Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    5. Nazif Durmaz & Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyejin Lee & Yanfei Sun, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Fund Discounts," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-08, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    7. Nazif Durmaz & Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyejin Lee & Yanfei Sun, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Mutual Fund Discounts," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    8. Hany Fahmy, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, July.
    9. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    10. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    11. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    12. Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Atanu Ghoshray & Ashira Perera, 2016. "An Empirical Study of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 551-571, July.
    14. Chao-Hsiang Yang & Chi-Tai Lin & Yu-Sheng Kao, 2012. "Exploring stationarity and structural breaks in commodity prices by the panel data model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 353-361, March.
    15. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    16. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    17. Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
    18. Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio & Savastano, Sara & Vezzani, Antonio, 2010. "The deterministic and speculative component of the terms of trade of primary commodities: An “Eclectic” Real Option value approach," 114th Seminar, April 15-16, 2010, Berlin, Germany 61086, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. David Colman, 2010. "Agriculture's terms of trade: issues and implications," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; relative commodity prices; residual augmented least squares; trend break; unit root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:1:p:31-45:n:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.