Quantifying Consumer Welfare Impacts of Higher Meat Prices During the COVID-19 Pandemic

While the U.S. food system has been largely able to maintain operations and provide consumers with the variety of foods they desire since the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic began, U.S. households have been facing sharply higher food prices for many staple items, especially meat. In this study, U.S. households’ meat purchases at retail stores for at-home consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic are examined and compared with those before the virus outbreak. A demand model is estimated using data collected during 2019 and 2020 on households’ purchases of beef, pork, poultry, and other meats (mainly lamb and mutton) at retail stores. Results show that households spent more on meat for at-home consumption during 2020. This increase in expenditures reflects both higher retail food prices—which other research attributes to pandemic-related supply chain problems—and higher quantities purchased that offset reductions in meat consumption at restaurants and other foodservice facilities. Although U.S. households maintained their overall level of meat consumption during 2020, higher prices for meat at retail food stores still reduced their welfare. Those losses were higher during the spring and summer of 2020 and peaked in June 2020, with U.S. households’ monthly welfare down by $24.51 per household during that month due to higher prices for meats in general. Higher prices for beef, pork, and poultry accounted for $8.30, $7.07, and $8.18, respectively, of that total. In December 2020, households’ monthly welfare loss was $6.19 per household with higher prices for beef, pork, and poultry accounting for $2.44, $1.54, and $1.89, respectively.