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Baby Boom Migration and Its Impact on Rural America

Author

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  • Cromartie, John
  • Nelson, Peter

Abstract

Members of the baby boom cohort, now 45-63 years old, are approaching a period in their lives when moves to rural and small-town destinations increase. An analysis of age-specific, net migration during the 1990s reveals extensive shifts in migration patterns as Americans move through different life-cycle stages. Assuming similar age patterns of migration, this report identifies the types of nonmetropolitan counties that are likely to experience the greatest surge in baby boom migration during 2000-20 and projects the likely impact on the size and distribution of retirement-age populations in destination counties. The analysis finds a significant increase in the propensity to migrate to nonmetro counties as people reach their fifties and sixties and projects a shift in migration among boomers toward more isolated settings, especially those with high natural and urban amenities and lower housing costs. If baby boomers follow past migration patterns, the nonmetro population age 55-75 will increase by 30 percent between now and 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Cromartie, John & Nelson, Peter, 2009. "Baby Boom Migration and Its Impact on Rural America," Economic Research Report 55947, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:55947
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Ferguson & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert & Mark Partridge, 2007. "Voting with Their Feet: Jobs versus Amenities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 77-110.
    2. Karl Taeuber, 1966. "Cohort migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(2), pages 416-422, June.
    3. Beale, Calvin L., 2004. "Nonmetro Counties Vary by Urban Size and Metro Proximity," Amber Waves, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, November.
    4. Kenneth Johnson & Paul Voss & Roger Hammer & Glenn Fuguitt & Scott Mcniven, 2005. "Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 791-812, November.
    5. McGranahan, David A., 1999. "Natural Amenities Drive Rural Population Change," Agricultural Economics Reports 33955, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tierney, Sean, 2011. "The rural utility response to Colorado’s electricity mandates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7217-7223.
    2. Kenneth M. Johnson & Richelle L. Winkler, 2015. "Migration signatures across the decades," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(38), pages 1065-1080, May.
    3. Lawson, Megan M. & Rasker, Ray & Gude, Patricia H., 2014. "The Importance of Non-labor Income: An Analysis of Socioeconomic Performance in Western Counties by Type of Non-labor Income," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2).
    4. Israel Schwarzlose, Alicia A. & Mjelde, James W. & Dudensing, Rebekka M. & Jin, Yanhong & Cherrington, Linda K. & Chen, Junyi, 2014. "Willingness to pay for public transportation options for improving the quality of life of the rural elderly," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Richelle L. Winkler & Kenneth M. Johnson, 2016. "Moving Toward Integration? Effects of Migration on Ethnoracial Segregation Across the Rural-Urban Continuum," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1027-1049, August.
    6. Pender, John L. & Marre, Alexander W. & Reeder, Richard J., 2012. "Rural Wealth Creation Concepts, Strategies, and Measures," Economic Research Report 121860, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Israel, Alicia & Mjelde, James W. & Dudensing, Rebekka M. & Cherrington, Linda & Jin, Yanhong H. & Chen, Junyi, 2012. "The Value of Transportation for Improving the Quality of Life of the Rural Elderly," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119667, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Cheryl Burkhart-Kriesel & Randolph Cantrell & Nancy Hodur & Charlotte Narjes & Rebecca Vogt, 2014. "Marketing rural communities: a qualitative study on the power of community images," Community Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 180-193, May.

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