COVID-19 Working Paper: Migration, Local Mobility, and the spread of COVID-19 in Rural America

This paper examines how movement between and within communities was linked to the initial arrival and spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) infections into and through nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) counties. Drawing on data from governmental and non-governmental sources, the analysis reveals patterns of hierarchical diffusion, with COVID-19 infections quickly spreading to progressively smaller places during the first 3 months of 2020. COVID-19 arrived earlier in nonmetro counties with stronger migration ties to metro regions. Once present in a nonmetro county, the infection spread more quickly in those where populations were less able to limit day-to-day movements, and overall nonmetro counties were less able to limit day-to-day mobility compared to metro counties. From April through June 2020, counties where mobility remained high (similar to pre-pandemic levels) showed COVID-19 infection rates twice those of counties with greater reductions in day-to-day mobility. While infection rates increased across all nonmetro counties through summer 2020, the gap persisted between counties with reduced local mobility and those with high mobility. These findings suggest that in the absence of medical interventions (e.g., vaccines and treatment), limiting movement between and within places may slow the spread of highly contagious viruses, and certain types of places may be less able to implement these nonmedical tactics and may therefore be at greater risk in future pandemics. The analysis also suggests that more risk-prone communities may benefit from more robust testing programs.