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The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment

Author

Listed:
  • Zahniser, Steven
  • Hertz, Thomas
  • Dixon, Peter B.
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.

Abstract

This report uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic effects of a hypothetical 10-percent increase in foreign demand for U.S. agri - cultural exports. This demand shift was found to result in a 6.7-percent increase in the volume of such exports, worth $9.7 billion at 2013 prices, and a net increase in total U.S. employment (all economic sectors) of about 41,500 jobs—above and beyond the nearly 1.1 million full-time civilian jobs that U.S. agricultural exports currently support. Some 40 percent of these new jobs are created in rural (nonmetropolitan) counties. Most parts of the agri-food sector (i.e., production agriculture plus food and beverage manufac - turing) would see an increase in employment, while employment in other trade-exposed industries—most notably non-food-and-beverage manufacturing and mining—would decrease. The agri-food sector’s share of regional employment is the main determi - nant of the percentage change in total regional employment in our simulation. Since the agri-food sector accounts for a larger share of nonmetro employment than of metro employment, growth in U.S. agricultural exports is of greater relative importance to the economic prosperity of nonmetro communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahniser, Steven & Hertz, Thomas & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2017. "The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment," Economic Research Report 262186, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262186
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Marinos E. Tsigas, 2007. "Regionalising results from a detailed CGE model: Macro, industry and state effects in the U.S. of removing major tariffs and quotas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(1), pages 31-55, March.
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    Keywords

    Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital;

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