IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersrr/262186.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment

Author

Listed:
  • Zahniser, Steven
  • Hertz, Thomas
  • Dixon, Peter B.
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.

Abstract

This report uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic effects of a hypothetical 10-percent increase in foreign demand for U.S. agri - cultural exports. This demand shift was found to result in a 6.7-percent increase in the volume of such exports, worth $9.7 billion at 2013 prices, and a net increase in total U.S. employment (all economic sectors) of about 41,500 jobs—above and beyond the nearly 1.1 million full-time civilian jobs that U.S. agricultural exports currently support. Some 40 percent of these new jobs are created in rural (nonmetropolitan) counties. Most parts of the agri-food sector (i.e., production agriculture plus food and beverage manufac - turing) would see an increase in employment, while employment in other trade-exposed industries—most notably non-food-and-beverage manufacturing and mining—would decrease. The agri-food sector’s share of regional employment is the main determi - nant of the percentage change in total regional employment in our simulation. Since the agri-food sector accounts for a larger share of nonmetro employment than of metro employment, growth in U.S. agricultural exports is of greater relative importance to the economic prosperity of nonmetro communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahniser, Steven & Hertz, Thomas & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2017. "The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment," Economic Research Report 262186, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262186
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262186
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/262186/files/err-227.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/262186/files/err-227.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.262186?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter B. Dixon & Stefan Osborne & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2007. "The Economy-Wide Effects in the United States of Replacing Crude Petroleum with Biomass," Energy & Environment, , vol. 18(6), pages 709-722, November.
    2. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    3. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Marinos E. Tsigas, 2007. "Regionalising results from a detailed CGE model: Macro, industry and state effects in the U.S. of removing major tariffs and quotas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(1), pages 31-55, March.
    5. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    6. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    7. K. Fox, Alan & Powers, William, 2008. "Textile and Apparel Barriers and Rules of Origin: What’s Left to Gain after the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 656-684.
    8. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    9. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766968, December.
    10. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Bryan W. Roberts, 2014. "Restricting Employment Of Low-Paid Immigrants: A General Equilibrium Assessment Of The Social Welfare Implications For Legal U.S. Wage-Earners," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 639-652, July.
    11. James Andrew Giesecke, 2011. "Development of a Large-scale Single US Region CGE Model using IMPLAN Data: A Los Angeles County Example with a Productivity Shock Application," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 331-350, April.
    12. P. B. Dixon & J. A. Giesecke & M. T. Rimmer & A. Rose, 2011. "The Economic Costs To The U.S. Of Closing Its Borders: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 85-97.
    13. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Khan, Fahad, 2016. "Global production sharing and the measurement of price elasticity in international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 27-30.
    14. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    15. Rosson, C. Parr, III, 2012. "C. Parr Rosson," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1-2, August.
    16. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521139779, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xi He, 2020. "US agricultural exports and labor market adjustments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 609-621, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter B. Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen T. Rimmer & Glyn Wittwer, 2017. "Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism events: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool)," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-280, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Dixon, Peter & Jerie, Michael & Rimmer, Maureen & Wittwer, Glyn, 2017. "Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool," Conference papers 332900, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Rose, Adam & Chen, Zhenhua & Wei, Dan & Prager, Fynn, 2015. "Estimating the Macroeconomic Impacts of U.S. Anti-Dumping Enforcement," Conference papers 332572, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Adam Rose & Misak Avetisyan & Samrat Chatterjee, 2014. "A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1554-1579, August.
    5. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    6. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Rajesh Chadha & Devender Pratap & Anjali Tandon, 2016. "A CGE model for India with an application on the effects of eliminating agricultural subsidies," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-265, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Adam Rose, 2015. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorist attacks: estimation for the analysis of policies and rules," Chapters, in: Carol Mansfield & V. K. Smith (ed.), Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 8, pages 172-200, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. MASSIANI, Jérôme, 2022. "Computable General Equilibrium assessment of mega-events: Issues and possible solutions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 920-942.
    9. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2016. "Johansen's legacy to CGE modelling: Originator and guiding light for 50 years," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 421-435.
    10. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 379-475, Elsevier.
    11. Ozana Nadoveza & Marija Penava, 2016. "Building Computable General Equilibrium Model Of Croatia," EFZG Working Papers Series 1605, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    12. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    13. M. Alejandro Cardenete & M. Carmen Lima & Ferran Sancho, 2013. "Are There Key Sectors? An Appraisal Using Applied General Equilibrium," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2,3), pages 111-129, Winter.
    14. Widodo, Tri & Fitrady, Ardyanto & Alim Rosyadi, Saiful & Erdyas Bimanatya, Traheka, 2018. "A Long-Run Estimation of Natural Gas Demand in Indonesian Manufacturing Sector: Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach," MPRA Paper 86887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    16. Fiorini, Matteo; Lebrand, Mathilde, 2016. "The Political Economy of Services Trade Agreements," Economics Working Papers ECO2016/05, European University Institute.
    17. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    18. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    19. Tianren Yang, 2020. "Understanding commuting patterns and changes: Counterfactual analysis in a planning support framework," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1440-1455, October.
    20. Wang, X. & Dietrich, J.P. & Lotze-Campen, H. & Biewald, A. & Munson, T.S. & Muller, C., 2018. "Trading More Food in the Context of High-end Climate Change: Implications for Land Displacement through Agricultural Trade," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276997, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.