IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment


  • Zahniser, Steven
  • Hertz, Thomas
  • Dixon, Peter B.
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.


This report uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic effects of a hypothetical 10-percent increase in foreign demand for U.S. agri - cultural exports. This demand shift was found to result in a 6.7-percent increase in the volume of such exports, worth $9.7 billion at 2013 prices, and a net increase in total U.S. employment (all economic sectors) of about 41,500 jobs—above and beyond the nearly 1.1 million full-time civilian jobs that U.S. agricultural exports currently support. Some 40 percent of these new jobs are created in rural (nonmetropolitan) counties. Most parts of the agri-food sector (i.e., production agriculture plus food and beverage manufac - turing) would see an increase in employment, while employment in other trade-exposed industries—most notably non-food-and-beverage manufacturing and mining—would decrease. The agri-food sector’s share of regional employment is the main determi - nant of the percentage change in total regional employment in our simulation. Since the agri-food sector accounts for a larger share of nonmetro employment than of metro employment, growth in U.S. agricultural exports is of greater relative importance to the economic prosperity of nonmetro communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahniser, Steven & Hertz, Thomas & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2017. "The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment," Economic Research Report 262186, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262186
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262186

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Marinos E. Tsigas, 2007. "Regionalising results from a detailed CGE model: Macro, industry and state effects in the U.S. of removing major tariffs and quotas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(1), pages 31-55, March.
    2. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    3. K. Fox, Alan & Powers, William, 2008. "Textile and Apparel Barriers and Rules of Origin: What’s Left to Gain after the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 656-684.
    4. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Bryan W. Roberts, 2014. "Restricting Employment Of Low-Paid Immigrants: A General Equilibrium Assessment Of The Social Welfare Implications For Legal U.S. Wage-Earners," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 639-652, July.
    6. James Andrew Giesecke, 2011. "Development of a Large-scale Single US Region CGE Model using IMPLAN Data: A Los Angeles County Example with a Productivity Shock Application," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 331-350, April.
    7. Ina Simonovska & Michael E. Waugh, 2011. "The Elasticity of Trade: Estimates and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 3356, CESifo.
    8. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    9. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521139779, December.
    10. Peter B. Dixon & Stefan Osborne & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2007. "The Economy-Wide Effects in the United States of Replacing Crude Petroleum with Biomass," Energy & Environment, , vol. 18(6), pages 709-722, November.
    11. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766968, December.
    12. P. B. Dixon & J. A. Giesecke & M. T. Rimmer & A. Rose, 2011. "The Economic Costs To The U.S. Of Closing Its Borders: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 85-97.
    13. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    14. Rosson, C. Parr, III, 2012. "C. Parr Rosson," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1-2, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.