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Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool

Author

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  • Dixon, Peter
  • Jerie, Michael
  • Rimmer, Maureen
  • Wittwer, Glyn

Abstract

The Terrorism Risk Assessment (TRA) groups in the Department of Homeland Security assess millions of terrorism scenarios defined by location, agent (e.g. nuclear device), and delivery method (e.g. car bomb). For each scenario they estimate deaths, injuries, property damage, clean-up and health expenses, visitor discouragement, and other damage dimensions. The TRA groups translate damages into economic measures, e.g. loss of GDP. Previously they used an input-output (I-O) model. Here we replace I-O with computable general equilibrium (CGE). Solving CGE models is computationally time-consuming and requires specialist skills. For the TRA groups this creates two challenges: feasibility and security. A model that cannot be solved in less than a fraction of a second is infeasible for analyzing millions of scenarios. The TRAs can rely only on people with high security clearances, limiting the possibilities for obtaining specialist advice. Our approach to these challenges was to use a CGE model to estimate elasticities that connect economic implication variables with damage or driving variables. We supplied these elasticities for use in the equation: v=Sum(s, E(s,d,v)*s ) where v and s are the percentage changes in an implication variable and a driving variable. E(s,d,v) is a CGE-estimated elasticity that we supplied. It is the elasticity of v to a terrorism shock s perpetrated in target region d, e.g. the percentage effect on national welfare of destruction of 1 per cent of the capital stock in congressional district NY14. Our elasticity approach solves both challenges. First, for any given terrorism scenario specified by a location and a vector of s variables, the elasticity equation can be computed in nanoseconds to evaluate a range of implication variables, v. Second, as outside contractors, we had no need for access to sensitive information on specific shock vectors s and target regions d.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Peter & Jerie, Michael & Rimmer, Maureen & Wittwer, Glyn, 2017. "Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool," Conference papers 332900, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332900
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Bryan W. Roberts, 2014. "Restricting Employment Of Low-Paid Immigrants: A General Equilibrium Assessment Of The Social Welfare Implications For Legal U.S. Wage-Earners," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 639-652, July.
    2. James Andrew Giesecke, 2011. "Development of a Large-scale Single US Region CGE Model using IMPLAN Data: A Los Angeles County Example with a Productivity Shock Application," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 331-350, April.
    3. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 13-23, September.
    5. P. B. Dixon & J. A. Giesecke & M. T. Rimmer & A. Rose, 2011. "The Economic Costs To The U.S. Of Closing Its Borders: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 85-97.
    6. K. Fox, Alan & Powers, William, 2008. "Textile and Apparel Barriers and Rules of Origin: What’s Left to Gain after the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 656-684.
    7. Steven Zahniser & Tom Hertz & Peter Dixon & Maureen Rimmer, 2012. "Immigration Policy and its Possible Effects on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 477-482.
    8. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "Validation in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1271-1330, Elsevier.
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