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Intensify, diversify, opt-out: testing farmer stated intentions to past and future CAP reform scenarios


  • Barnes, Andrew Peter
  • Toma, Luiza
  • Mathews, Keith
  • Sutherland, Lee-Ann
  • Thomson, Steven


A series of studies have explored the future intentions of farm households to reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper explores the intentions of Scottish livestock farmers under proposed reforms and, using the path dependency model, estimates the effect of past decisions on determining future intentions. A large representative telephone based survey of livestock farmers was conducted over the Summer of 2013. This yielded a response rate of 1,764 observations from livestock based holdings in Scotland. A multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the influence of various factors on either increasing or decreasing activity in agricultural and non-agricultural related areas. Whilst hypothesised increases in payment will lead to an intention to increase activity, a reduction in payment, in some cases, also leads to stated increases in activity both in agricultural and non-agricultural enterprises. We find that the most powerful predictors of change are response to past reform, farmer age and the identification of a successor within the farm household. This latter variable is highly significant and may negate concerns over uncertainty within short-term policy planning scenarios. Overall we argue for more appreciation of longer term trajectories of change at the farm level.

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  • Barnes, Andrew Peter & Toma, Luiza & Mathews, Keith & Sutherland, Lee-Ann & Thomson, Steven, 2014. "Intensify, diversify, opt-out: testing farmer stated intentions to past and future CAP reform scenarios," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169724, Agricultural Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc14:169724

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mary Clare Ahearn & Jet Yee & Penni Korb, 2005. "Effects of Differing Farm Policies on Farm Structure and Dynamics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1182-1189.
    2. Laure Latruffe & Aurélia Dupuy & Yann Desjeux, 2012. "What would farmers’ strategies be in a no-CAP situation? An illustration from France," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 12-02, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
    3. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    4. Mark Brady & Konrad Kellermann & Christoph Sahrbacher & Ladislav Jelinek, 2009. "Impacts of Decoupled Agricultural Support on Farm Structure, Biodiversity and Landscape Mosaic: Some EU Results," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 563-585.
    5. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Stefan Tangermann & Alan Matthews & Davide Viaggi & Christophe Crombez & Louise Knops & Johan Swinnen, 2012. "The Common Agricultural Policy after 2013," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 47(6), pages 316-342, November.
    6. Tate, Graham & Mbzibain, Aurelian & Ali, Shaukat, 2012. "A comparison of the drivers influencing farmers' adoption of enterprises associated with renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 400-409.
    7. Tranter, R.B. & Swinbank, A. & Wooldridge, M.J. & Costa, L. & Knapp, T. & Little, G.P.J. & Sottomayor, M.L., 2007. "Implications for food production, land use and rural development of the European Union's Single Farm Payment: Indications from a survey of farmers' intentions in Germany, Portugal and the UK," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5-6), pages 656-671.
    8. Beal, Diana J., 1996. "Emerging Issues in Risk Management in Farm Firms," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(03), pages 1-12, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giannoccaro, Giacomo & de Gennaro, Bernardo C. & De Meo, Emilio & Prosperi, Maurizio, 2017. "Assessing farmers' willingness to supply biomass as energy feedstock: Cereal straw in Apulia (Italy)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 179-185.

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    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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