IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rae/jourae/v95y2014i1p51-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers’ land investment decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Marianne Lefebvre

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, IPTS, E-41092 Seville, Spain)

  • Meri Raggi

    (University of Bologna, Department of Statistical Sciences, I-40126 Bologna, Italy)

  • Sergio Gomez Y Paloma

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, IPTS, E-41092 Seville, Spain)

  • Davide Viaggi

    (University of Bologna, Department of Statistical Sciences, I-40126 Bologna, Italy)

Abstract

The article analyses the discrepancy between farmers’ investment intentions and the observed realisations. We focus on intentions to investment in land on the part of 171 farmers in 6 EU case study areas (collected in 2006) and their realised investments between 2006 and 2009. While the farmers who had no intention to invest mostly follow their plans, only 36% of those who intended to invest in 2006 have done so by 2009. We set up a recursive bivariate probit model in which intention is an endogeneous regressor of the realisation. We show that stated intentions are a reasonably good predictor of realised actions, and highlight drivers of the discrepancy between intentions and realisations, such as pessimistic expectations regarding the future of both agricultural markets and the farm when no successor is known. Some recommendations on the use of stated intention surveys to study the farming sector are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Lefebvre & Meri Raggi & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma & Davide Viaggi, 2014. "An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers’ land investment decisions," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 95(1), pages 51-75.
  • Handle: RePEc:rae:jourae:v:95:y:2014:i:1:p:51-75
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/208764/2/RAEStud-95-1-51-75.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Lefebvre & Kim De Cuyper & Ellen Loix & Davide Viaggi & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2014. "European Farmers intentions to invest in 2014-2020: survey results," JRC Working Papers JRC90441, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stated intentions; survey; agriculture; investment; land; recursive bivariate probit;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rae:jourae:v:95:y:2014:i:1:p:51-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nathalie Saux-Nogues). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inrapfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.