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Farm/Household-level Simulation Results of Testing Policy and Other Scenarios

  • Viaggi, Davide
  • Bartolini, Fabio
  • Puddu, Marco
  • Raggi, Meri

Among the different production factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development and one of the most studied. The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The proposal of the latter has been published in October 2011 and in Italy it will include the switch of the payment regime from an historical to a regional basis. The authors’ objective is to simulate the impact of the proposed policy reform on the land market, particularly on land values and propensity to transaction. They combine insights and data from a farm household investment model revised and extended in order to simulate the demand curve for land in different policy scenarios and a survey of farmers stated intention carried out in the province of Bologna (Italy) in 2012. Based on these results, the authors calibrate a mathematical programming model of land market exchanges for the province of Bologna and use this model form simulation. The results of the model largely corroborate the results from the survey and both hint at a relevant reaction of the land demand and supply to the shift from the historical to the regionalised payments. As effect, the regionalisation would result in increased rental prices and in a tendency to the re-allocation of land.

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Paper provided by Centre for European Policy Studies in its series Factor Markets Working Papers with number 166.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eps:fmwppr:166
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  2. Frédéric Courleux & Hervé Guyomard & Fabrice Levert & Laurent Piet, 2008. "How the EU Single Farm Payment should be modelled: lump-sum transfers, area payments or… what else?," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 08-01, INRA UMR SMART.
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  9. Puddu,Marco & Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi,Davide, 2012. "Simulation of Land Use and Investment Behaviour under Different Policy Scenarios: Results of the extended farm/household model," Factor Markets Working Papers 132, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  10. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2010. "An integer programming dynamic farm-household model to evaluate the impact of agricultural policy reforms on farm investment behaviour," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 1130-1139, December.
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  13. Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi, Davide & Ronchi, Davide & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio & Sammeth, Frank, 2011. "Assessing the impact of future CAP reforms on the demand of production factors," 122nd Seminar, February 17-18, 2011, Ancona, Italy 99593, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  14. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, 09.
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