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Whither Dairy Policy? Evaluating Expected Government Outlays and Distributional Impacts of Alternative 2013 Farm Bill Dairy Title Proposals

  • Newton, John
  • Thraen, Cameron S.
  • Bozic, Marin

In this analysis we compare the total expected government outlays and distribution of benefits under newly proposed dairy margin insurance programs to those under existing counter-cyclical payment programs. We combine simulation and structural modeling techniques to forecast milk price and dairy income-over-feed-cost margins. Using the price forecasts we employ Monte-Carlo experiments to evaluate the total expected government outlays for a sample of 5000 representative farms given a constant relative risk aversion utility framework. We find that expected outlays favor large farm operations and are an order of magnitude higher than those under existing programs. Under the current policy framework (MILC), farms with less than 100 cows (76% of farms) account for 42% of net payments and farms over 1000 cows (2% of farms) account for 6% of net payments. Under the new policy regime farms with fewer than 100 cows will get 17-21% of net program benefits, and farms over 1000 cows will get 36-43% of benefits.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/153750
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 153750.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:153750
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  1. D’Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Blayney, Donald, 2013. "Assessing participation in the Milk Income Loss Contract program and its impact on milk production," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 243-254.
  2. Bryant, Henry L. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Anderson, David P., 2007. "Aggregate Milk Supply Response to the Milk Income Loss Contract Program," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 25(2).
  3. Adeyemi Esuola & Michael Hoy & Zahirul Islam & Calum G. Turvey, 2007. "Evaluating the effects of asymmetric information in a model of crop insurance," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 67(2), pages 341-356, September.
  4. Just, Richard E. & Calvin, Linda & Quiggin, John, 1993. "Adverse Selection in Crop Insurance: Actuarial and Asymmetric Information Incentives," Working Papers 197809, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  5. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Mean-reversion in Income over Feed Cost Margins:Evidence and Implications for Managing Margin Risk by U.S. Dairy Producers," Staff Papers 132379, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  6. Thraen, Cameron S. & Hammond, Jerome W., 1987. "Price Enhancement, Returns Variability, And Supply Response In The U.S. Dairy Sector," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
  7. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1997. "An Expected-Indemnity Approach to the Measurement of Moral Hazard in Crop Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 216-226.
  8. Schmit, Todd M. & Dong, Diansheng & Chung, Chanjin & Kaiser, Harry M. & Gould, Brian W., 2002. "Identifying The Effects Of Generic Advertising On The Household Demand For Fluid Milk And Cheese: A Two-Step Panel Data Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
  9. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
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