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Welfare changes associated with forest carbon offset credits in the United States

This paper analyzes forest carbon offset credits arising under a possible cap-and-trade system in the United States and its effect on net revenue and commodity prices. A real option model determines the optimal switching from agriculture to forestry under uncertainty in both activities. The key aspects of the model are uncertainty, endogenously determined commodity prices, and spatially explicit modeling in a real option framework. The model is calibrated to counties in the contiguous United States and includes nine major crops and pasture. We show that the highest increase in net revenue occurs in the Southeast and the Northwest with small increases in the Corn Belt. Switching from agriculture to forestry starts occurring early in counties with low crop yields but does not manifests itself immediately in the crop price which results in smaller impacts on commodity prices than previously estimated.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124632
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 124632.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124632
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  1. Jinhua Zhao, 2000. "Irreversible Abatement Investment Under Cost Uncertainties: Tradable Emission Permits and Emissions Charges," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 00-wp252, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  2. Chladna, Zuzana, 2007. "Determination of optimal rotation period under stochastic wood and carbon prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 1031-1045, May.
  3. Balikcioglu, Metin & Fackler, Paul L. & Pindyck, Robert S., 2011. "Solving optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 761-768, September.
  4. Lubowski, Ruben & Plantinga, Andrew & Stavins, Robert, 2005. "Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function," Working Paper Series rwp05-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  6. Feng Song & Jinhua Zhao & Scott M. Swinton, 2011. "Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 764-779.
  7. Odening, Martin & Mu[ss]hoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert & Balmann, Alfons, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty--Does competition matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 994-1014, March.
  8. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  9. Nostbakken, Linda, 2006. "Regime switching in a fishery with stochastic stock and price," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241, March.
  10. Schatzki, Todd, 2003. "Options, uncertainty and sunk costs:: an empirical analysis of land use change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 86-105, July.
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