The Failure Of Marketable Permit Systems And Uncertainty Of Environmental Policy: A Switching Regime Model Applied To The Dutch Phosphate Quota Program
A well-known feature of pollution control with tradable quota rights is that the benefits to ownership will capitalize into prices of the quota. Quota present a unique opportunity to examine the effect of risks introduced by governmental programs because all the return to quota is dependent upon these programs. The uncertainty of future regulatory action results from the probability that the stream of incomes could be reduced (portfolio risk) by policy variation or stopped (default risk) by a substantial switch or shock in policy regime. Eliminating the quota program is the extreme case of default risk, as it would terminate the quota benefits. The paper concentrates on the paradox that environmental regulation can provoke economic and environmental inefficiencies because of policy uncertainty. The theory on investment under uncertainty argues that when future returns are uncertain, an opportunity to wait and see has some (quasi) option value. Under uncertainty, investments and disinvestments will take place at respectively higher and lower levels of returns creating an inaction interval. This interval means that returns to quota can vary over a wide range before trade takes place and offers a new, theoretical explanation for the failure of marketable permit systems. The objectives of this paper are threefold. First, the option value theory is employed to forge a natural connection between political uncertainty and quota price volatility. Second, based on the option value theory, a switching regime model is developed for investing and disinvesting in quota. Third, the empirical evidence for the Dutch Phosphate Quota Program indicates that policy risks led to asset fixity. Consequently, the market of tradable phosphate quota was not effective with major negative implications for both economic and environmental efficiency.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202|
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richards, Timothy J., 1996. "Economic Hysteresis And The Effects Of Output Regulation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(01), July.
- Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Rucker, Randal R & Thurman, Walter N, 1990. "The Economic Effects of Supply Controls: The Simple Analytics of the U.S. Peanut Program," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 483-515, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea00:21792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.