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Economic hysteresis in hog production

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Hinrichs
  • Oliver Musshoff
  • Martin Odening

Abstract

German hog production only responds in a very limited way to price fluctuations in the pork market. The hog production concentrates on a few regions though it is not bound to special natural conditions such as soil quality. Furthermore, the volume of production does not vary over time. Relatively high market risks, sunk costs and the flexibility of the decision maker to defer investments characterize decision problems in hog production. Thus the real option approach is chosen to explain the inertia in production capacity. By the use of panel data of specialized hog farms from the German Farm Accountancy Data Network, an empirical investment model is estimated. Formally, the model has the structure of a generalized ordered probit model. This approach allows to test for economic hysteresis in the adjustment of hog production capacity. The results confirm that uncertainty and flexibility widen the optimal range of inaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hinrichs & Oliver Musshoff & Martin Odening, 2008. "Economic hysteresis in hog production," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 333-340.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:3:p:333-340
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500447880
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wossink, Ada, 2000. "The Failure Of Marketable Permit Systems And Uncertainty Of Environmental Policy: A Switching Regime Model Applied To The Dutch Phosphate Quota Program," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21792, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuliano Curatola & Michael Donadelli & Patrick Grüning & Christoph Meinerding, 2016. "Investment-Specific Shocks, Business Cycles, and Asset Prices," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 36, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Nataliya Zinych & Martin Odening, 2009. "Capital market imperfections in economic transition: empirical evidence from Ukrainian agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(6), pages 677-689, November.
    3. Dillen, Koen & Tollens, Eric & Wesseler, Justus, 2010. "The Barroso Proposal Of Nationalizing Gmapproval: A Look At Ht Sugar Beets Under Changed European Sugar Policy," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188086, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    4. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach," Discussion Papers 122422, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    5. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. repec:ags:aaea13:150610 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Delbridge, Timothy A., 2013. "Threshold Effects in Transition to Organic Dairy Production," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150554, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2013. "Investing Today or Tomorrow? An Experimental Approach to Farmers’ Decision Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-318, June.
    9. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the investment behavior of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125218, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Sandri, Serena & Schade, Christian & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010. "Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs' and non-entrepreneurs' disinvestment choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 30-44, October.
    11. Niemi, Jarkko K., 2012. "Designing coordination contracts to support efficient flow-scheduling in pork chain," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125208, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Huettel, Silke & Narayana, Rashmi & Odening, Martin, 2011. "Measuring dynamic efficiency under uncertainty," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 129062, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    13. Breustedt, Gunnar & Mees, Martin, 2010. "Growth Of German Dairy Farms Under The Eu Milk Quota," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93950, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    14. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Liu, Xing & Pietola, Kyosti, 2011. "Price volatility and return on pig fattening under different price- quantity contract regimes," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114614, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Xianlei Ma & Justus Wesseler & Nico Heerink & Futian Qu, 2013. "Land Tenure Reforms and Land Conservation Investments in China ¨C What Does Real Option Value Theory Tell Us?," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 19-33, August.
    16. Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Schade, Christian, 2011. "Closing down the Farm: An Experimental Analysis of Disinvestment Timing," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114375, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Sangcheol Song, 2014. "Entry mode irreversibility, host market uncertainty, and foreign subsidiary exits," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 455-471, June.
    18. Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Schade, Christian, 2010. "Zum Desinvestitionsverhalten Landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmer: Ergebnisse Einer Experimentellen Untersuchung," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93943, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    19. Lee, Sangjun & Zhao, Jinhua & Thornsbury, Suzanne, 2013. "Extreme Events and Land Use Decisions under Climate Change in Tart Cherry Industry in Michigan," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150568, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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