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The Impact of HPAI of the H5N1 Strain on Economies of Affected Countries

In: Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources

Listed author(s):
  • Ceyhun Elci

    (London South Bank University)

The epidemic of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 strain is causing major economic problems to affected countries, mostly in South-East Asia. The poultry industry is the most devastated, with major losses. This paper assesses the impact and cost of an epidemic of this nature on affected economies. The paper evaluates the economic impact from the poultry industry to the governments and even further to the international level, as the epidemic has no consideration of borders. With the world at the crossroads of a global pandemic, the economic impact will also be considerable at the international level. With the use of forecasting models the affects of the epidemic will be evaluated. The impact to affected countries economies are not just national based, for those with the endemic H5N1 strain are socially burdened with sustaining or even intensifying resource-intensive activities and as a consequence are left with shouldering economic losses in order to safeguard international public health. This at a major level will require the cooperation of the international field, with increased global integration the financial responsibility will be left to the international countries, to make sure all is coherent. The paper in particular assesses the economic impact of the poultry industry for the affected countries. Within these countries the poultry industry is seen as a major sector and the consequence of this pandemic has been the death of poultry from the disease itself and the culling of poultry to stem its spread. Both these factor are leading to significant costs to the poultry industry and to the Governments of the affected countries in containing the epidemic. The increase in costs can be seen in terms of equipment, materials, transport and personnel, that are required to keep a control on the spread. The impact will be qualified by the assessment of GDP and modelling the losses of trade and Government expenditure in controlling the spread of the disease and subsidiaries that the government would have provided to farmers of diseased Livestock for compensation. The results of the impact will have a major impact on the development of the affected regions. The loss of a major source of income from the trade of poultry will have serious consequences on the balance of payments and Government Debt. The cooperation of the affected countries through information will help and lower the overall impact to each country. However the total impact will depend on the transfer of information between affected economies, and the period of time the epidemic will last and if H5N1 begins to transfer to humans.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), 2006. "Proceedings of the International Conference on Human and Economic Resources," Proceedings of the IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, Izmir University of Economics, number 2006, October.
  • This item is provided by Izmir University of Economics in its series Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics with number 200610.
    Handle: RePEc:izm:prcdng:200610
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    1. Antle, John M., 1999. "Benefits and costs of food safety regulation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 605-623, December.
    2. Barrett, Christopher B. & Yang, Yi-Nung, 2001. "Rational incompatibility with international product standards," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 171-191, June.
    3. Roberts, Donna & Josling, Timothy E. & Orden, David, 1999. "A Framework for Analyzing Technical Trade Barriers in Agricultural Markets," Technical Bulletins 33560, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. John C. Beghin & Jean-Christophe Bureau, 2001. "Quantification of Sanitary, Phytosanitary, and Technical Barriers to Trade for Trade Policy Analysis," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 01-wp291, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Fischer, Ronald & Serra, Pablo, 2000. "Standards and protection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 377-400, December.
    6. Philip L. Paarlberg & John G. Lee, 1998. "Import Restrictions in the Presence of a Health Risk: An Illustration Using FMD," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 175-183.
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