IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/144526.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic change and the labour share of income

Author

Listed:
  • Schmidt, Torsten
  • Vosen, Simeon

Abstract

Despite similar levels of per capita income, education and technology, the development of labour income shares in OECD countries has displayed different patterns since 1960. The paper examines the role of demography in this regard. We first use a standard overlapping generations model to derive the mechanisms by which demographic change can affect the labour share. It turns out that demographic change can affect the labour share either by altering the domestic capital intensity, by causing factor-biased technological change or in a small open economy framework by creating a gap between domestic savings and investments. The latter affects the country's investments abroad and in return its net foreign asset income which directly leads to changes in the labour share. Empirical estimations based on these insights, provide evidence that an increases in the expected retirement durations and old-age dependency ratios as well as declines in labour force growth rates have indeed been major forces behind the decline in labour shares that took place in many countries. These effects tend to be larger in open economies and pension reforms towards a funded pension system seem to have accelerated the effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2013. "Demographic change and the labour share of income," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 357-378.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:144526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/144526/1/TSchmidt_2013_Demographic-change.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bentolila Samuel & Saint-Paul Gilles, 2003. "Explaining Movements in the Labor Share," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, October.
    2. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    4. Sul, Donggyu, 2009. "Panel unit root tests under cross section dependence with recursive mean adjustment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 123-126, October.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    6. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    7. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    8. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    9. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    10. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, August.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    13. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    14. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    15. Pemberton, James, 2000. "National and international privatisation of pensions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1873-1896, December.
    16. Philippe Weil, 2008. "Overlapping Generations: The First Jubilee," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    17. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2007. "From the Malthusian to the Modern Growth Regime in an OLG Model with Unions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(14), pages 1-10.
    18. Oliver J. Blanchard, 1997. "The Medium Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 89-158.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    21. Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "Trade surpluses and life-cycle saving behaviour," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 227-237, November.
    22. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2013. "Demographic change and the labour share of income," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 357-378.
    24. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    25. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    26. Norbert Berthold & Rainer Fehn & Eric Thode, 2002. "Falling Labor Share and Rising Unemployment: Long–Run Consequences of Institutional Shocks?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(4), pages 431-459, November.
    27. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2010. "The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 182-223, April.
    28. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner, 2024. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-51681-8, April.
    29. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 593-608, December.
    30. Simone Bertoli & Francesco Farina, 2007. "The functional distribution of income: a review of the theoretical literature and of the empirical evidence around its recent pattern in European countries," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 005, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    31. Arjun Jayadev, 2007. "Capital account openness and the labour share of income," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 423-443, May.
    32. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    33. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, October.
    34. Alain Serres & Stefano Scarpetta & Christine Maisonneuve, 2001. "Falling Wage Shares in Europe and the United States: How Important is Aggregation Bias?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 375-401, December.
    35. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8712 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November.
    37. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
    38. Steve Ambler, 2000. "Optimal Time Consistent Fiscal Policy with Overlapping Generations," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 111, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    39. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    40. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    41. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2007:i:14:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Anindya Banerjee & Paolo Zanghieri, 2003. "A New Look at the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle using an Integrated Panel," Working Papers 2003-22, CEPII research center.
    43. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8712 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2006. "Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 683-719, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Philipp Jäger & Torsten Schmidt, 2015. "The Political Economy of Public Investment when Population is Aging – A Panel Cointegration Analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0557, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2013. "Demographic change and the labour share of income," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 357-378.
    4. Batóg Jacek, 2017. "Labour Contribution and Productivity in the European Union: A Cluster Analysis," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 7-18, December.
    5. Bhatt, Vipul & Liao, Mouhua & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2023. "Government policy and land price dynamics: A quantitative assessment of China’s factor market reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2016. "The political economy of public investment when population is aging: A panel cointegration analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 145-158.
    7. Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share of income," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    8. Ivan D. TROFIMOV & Nazaria Md. ARIS & Muhammad Khairil Firdaus Bin ROSLI, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the labour share of income: Evidence from OECD economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 25-48, Autumn.
    9. Vipul Bhatt & Mouhua Liao & Min Qiang Zhao, 2019. "Government Policy and Land Price Dynamics: A Quantitative Assessment of China's Factor Market," Working Papers 2019-07-03, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    10. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2022. "Determinants of the profit rates in the OECD economies: A panel data analysis of the Kalecki's profit equation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 380-397.
    11. Patrik Rovný & Serhiy Moroz & Jozef Palkovič & Elena Horská, 2021. "Impact of Demographic Structure on Economic Development of Ukrainian Coastal Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Igor Fedotenkov, 2016. "Labour Shares, Fertility and Longevity in an OLG model," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 28, Bank of Lithuania.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:rwirep:0165 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2010. "Demographic Change and the Labour Share of Income," Ruhr Economic Papers 0165, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2016. "The political economy of public investment when population is aging: A panel cointegration analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 145-158.
    4. In Choi, 2013. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    5. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    6. Herzer, Dierk, 2014. "Unions and income inequality: a heterogenous cointegration and causality analysis," Working Paper 146/2014, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    7. Karikallio, Hanna, 2015. "Cross-commodity Price Transmission and Integration of the EU Livestock Market of Pork and Beef: Panel Time-series Approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211832, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Philipp Jäger & Torsten Schmidt, 2015. "The Political Economy of Public Investment when Population is Aging – A Panel Cointegration Analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0557, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    12. Olivier Damette & Philippe Frouté, 2010. "Is the crisis treatment exacerbating cautiousness or risk-taking? [Le traitement de la crise génère-t-il de la prudence ou de la prise de risque ?]," Post-Print hal-02336674, HAL.
    13. Declan French, 2012. "Causation between health and income: a need to panic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 583-601, April.
    14. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    15. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    16. Kholodilin Konstantin A. & Menz Jan-Oliver & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2010. "What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(1), pages 59-76, February.
    17. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1170-1175.
    18. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2010. "Challenging the popular wisdom. New estimates of the unobserved economy," Working Papers 184, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    19. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2022. "Determinants of the profit rates in the OECD economies: A panel data analysis of the Kalecki's profit equation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 380-397.
    20. Yongfu Huang, 2011. "Private investment and financial development in a globalized world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 43-56, August.
    21. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    22. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity For Developing And Developed Countries. What Can We Learn From Non‐Stationary Panel Data Models?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 752-773, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour Share; Demographic Change; Capital Mobility; Panel Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:144526. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.