IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v90y2023i2p444-473.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of bilateral currency swap agreements on foreign capital inflows: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Lingduo Jiang
  • Shuangshuang Liu
  • Guofeng Zhang

Abstract

This study empirically explores the effect of bilateral currency swap agreements (BCSAs) on foreign capital inflows. Using data on foreign enterprises' cross‐border investments in China over 2005–2020 released by Bureau van Dijk (BvD) Zephyr database, a multiperiod difference‐in‐differences (DID) estimation is used based on the signing of China's BCSAs over the period of 2009–2020. We find that the signing of BCSAs increases the total amount of foreign capital inflows by 9.97% and the number of foreign capital projects by 8.68% on average. Moreover, foreign capital inflows that come from economies with higher bilateral exchange fluctuations, fewer foreign exchange reserves, higher interest rates, higher tax rates, and lower institutional qualities are more responsive to the signing of BCSAs, especially for those horizontal capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Lingduo Jiang & Shuangshuang Liu & Guofeng Zhang, 2023. "The effect of bilateral currency swap agreements on foreign capital inflows: Evidence from China," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(2), pages 444-473, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:444-473
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12652
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/soej.12652?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1351-1408.
    2. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
    3. Chirinko, Robert S. & Wilson, Daniel J., 2017. "Tax competition among U.S. states: Racing to the bottom or riding on a seesaw?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 147-163.
    4. William A. Allen & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & William Nelson, 2017. "Central bank swap lines and CIP deviations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 394-402, October.
    5. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2004. "The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the presence of uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 125-148, January.
    7. Qiangbing Chen, 2009. "Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Mr. Mark R. Stone & W. Christopher Walker & Yosuke Yasui, 2009. "From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing in Brazil in Response to the Global Shock of 2008–09," IMF Working Papers 2009/259, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Linda S. Goldberg & Craig Kennedy & Jason Miu, 2011. "Central bank dollar swap lines and overseas dollar funding costs," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 3-20.
    10. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    11. Damijan, Jože P. & Rojec, Matija & Majcen, Boris & Knell, Mark, 2013. "Impact of firm heterogeneity on direct and spillover effects of FDI: Micro-evidence from ten transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 895-922.
    12. Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, 2004. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 605-627, June.
    13. Joshua Aizenman, 2010. "International Reserves and Swap Lines in Times of Financial Distress: Overview and Interpretations," Working Papers id:3022, eSocialSciences.
    14. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    15. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    16. Michael J. Fleming & Nicholas Klagge, 2010. "The Federal Reserve's foreign exchange swap lines," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Apr).
    17. Aizenman, Joshua & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2010. "Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: Analysis and interpretation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 353-365, June.
    18. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2012. "Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 326-340.
    19. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2011. "Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 651-697.
    20. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Park, Donghyun, 2011. "International reserves and swap lines: Substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-18, January.
    21. Contractor, Farok J. & Dangol, Ramesh & Nuruzzaman, N. & Raghunath, S., 2020. "How do country regulations and business environment impact foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(2).
    22. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    23. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do Borders Matter for Social Capital? Economic Growth and Civic Culture in U.S. States and Canadian Provinces," NBER Working Papers 5863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Conconi, Paola & Sapir, André & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2016. "The internationalization process of firms: From exports to FDI," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 16-30.
    26. Mutti, John & Grubert, Harry, 2004. "Empirical asymmetries in foreign direct investment and taxation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 337-358, March.
    27. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    28. Baker, Andrew C. & Larcker, David F. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2022. "How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 370-395.
    29. Bourgain, Arnaud & Zanaj, Skerdilajda, 2020. "A tax competition approach to resource taxation in developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    30. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-486, May.
    31. William A. Allen & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & William Nelson, 2017. "Central bank swap lines and CIP deviations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 394-402, October.
    32. Petia Topalova, 2010. "Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization: Evidence on Poverty from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-41, October.
    33. repec:bla:eufman:v:4:y:1998:i:1:p:9-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Mukherjee, Arijit & Suetrong, Kullapat, 2012. "Trade cost reduction and foreign direct investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1938-1945.
    35. Francesco Papadia, 2013. "Central bank cooperation during the great recession," Bruegel Policy Contributions 782, Bruegel.
    36. Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang & Zhu, Lianming, 2017. "Identifying FDI spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 75-90.
    37. Michael Overesch & Georg Wamser, 2009. "Who Cares About Corporate Taxation? Asymmetric Tax Effects on Outbound FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(12), pages 1657-1684, December.
    38. Buchanan, Bonnie G. & Le, Quan V. & Rishi, Meenakshi, 2012. "Foreign direct investment and institutional quality: Some empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 81-89.
    39. Dong, Quan & Bárcena-Ruiz, Juan Carlos, 2015. "Does investment in capacity encourage FDI?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 58-64.
    40. Shahnaz Parvin, 2021. "An association amongst Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Interest rate and Economic growth of Bangladesh from 1978 to 2020," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(11), pages 19-28.
    41. Ramachandran, M., 2004. "The optimal level of international reserves: evidence for India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 365-370, June.
    42. Mihaela Peres & Waqar Ameer & Helian Xu, 2018. "The impact of institutional quality on foreign direct investment inflows: evidence for developed and developing countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 626-644, January.
    43. Lee, Bong-Soo & Min, Byung S., 2011. "Exchange rates and FDI strategies of multinational enterprises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 586-603, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Dong & Qian, Xingwang & Zhu, Wenyu, 2024. "External debt currency denomination and the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Pauline Bourgeon & Jérôme Sgard, 2019. "Liquidity Swaps between Central Banks, the IMF, and the Evolution of the International Financial Architecture," Post-Print hal-04081559, HAL.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2015. "Epilogue: Foreign-Exchange-Market Operations in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 345-363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. D. Essers & E. Vincent, 2017. "The global financial safety net :In need of repair ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 87-112, september.
    5. Robert N McCauley & Catherine R Schenk, 2020. "Central bank swaps then and now: swaps and dollar liquidity in the 1960s," BIS Working Papers 851, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Yu, Ziliang & Liu, Xiaomeng & Liu, Zhuqing & Li, Yang, 2023. "Central bank swap arrangements and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi, 2019. "China’s Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement: Strategic Move to Foster Political and Financial Hegemony," MPRA Paper 109879, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2019.
    8. Alex Hollingsworth & Krzysztof Karbownik & Melissa A. Thomasson & Anthony Wray, 2024. "The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 2201-2238, July.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2022. "Central bank swap arrangements in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Marijke J. D. Bos & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2018. "Total factor productivity spillovers from trade reforms in India," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 549-606, May.
    11. Coraggio, Luca & Pagano, Marco & Scognamiglio, Annalisa & Tåg, Joacim, 2025. "JAQ of all trades: Job mismatch, firm productivity and managerial quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Tim Marple, 2021. "The social management of complex uncertainty: Central Bank similarity and crisis liquidity swaps at the Federal Reserve," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 377-401, April.
    13. Pauline Bourgeon & Jérôme Sgard, 2019. "Liquidity Swaps between Central Banks, the IMF, and the Evolution of the International Financial Architecture," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04081559, HAL.
    14. Miaojie Yu, 2020. "China-US Trade War and Trade Talk," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-15-3785-1, December.
    15. Emmanuel Carré & Laurent Le Maux, 2018. "The Federal Reserve's Dollar Swap Lines and the European Central Bank during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009," Post-Print hal-02570211, HAL.
    16. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2012. "Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 326-340.
    17. Michael D Bordo & Owen F Humpage & Anna J Schwartz, 2015. "The Evolution of the Federal Reserve Swap Lines since 1962," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(2), pages 353-372, September.
    18. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    19. Pierluigi Morelli & Giovanni Pittaluga & Elena Seghezza, 2015. "The role of the Federal Reserve as an international lender of last resort during the 2007–2008 financial crisis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 93-106, March.
    20. Tadashi ITO & Ayumu TANAKA, 2023. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment, Transactions, and Domestic Firms' Performance: Evidence from firm-to-firm transaction linkage," Discussion papers 23026, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:444-473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.