IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v43y2023i6p771-791.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trading around the clock: Revisit volatility spillover between crude oil and equity markets in different trading sessions

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Hao
  • Feng He
  • Feng Ma
  • Tong Fu

Abstract

We investigate the volatility spillover between the crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) and G7 countries' equity markets with high‐frequency data. Considering the trading period difference among different countries, the volatility spillover of oil market intraday and overnight sessions is studied with G7 countries, respectively. The empirical findings suggest that the US stock market dominates intraday volatility spillover to the oil market, while the European and Asian stock markets dominate overnight spillovers. The asymmetric spillover result shows that stock markets mainly spillover bad volatility to the oil market in the intraday trading session, and spillover good volatility to the oil market in the overnight trading session. Our results provide empirical evidence that crude oil market overnight trading information is also important for understanding information diffusion and volatility forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Hao & Feng He & Feng Ma & Tong Fu, 2023. "Trading around the clock: Revisit volatility spillover between crude oil and equity markets in different trading sessions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 771-791, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:43:y:2023:i:6:p:771-791
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22410
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22410
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22410?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    2. He, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Trabelsi, Nader & Alqahtani, Faisal & Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2020. "Systemic risk spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns of G7 economies: Conditional value-at-risk and marginal expected shortfall approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    6. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Bashmakova, Yuliya, 2013. "Assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets: A panel data approach for ten Central and Eastern European Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 204-211.
    7. Geert Dhaene & Piet Sercu & Jianbin Wu, 2022. "Volatility spillovers: A sparse multivariate GARCH approach with an application to commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 868-887, May.
    8. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    9. Liao, Jianhui & Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers across oil, gold and stock markets in the presence of major public health emergencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    11. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Asymmetric connectedness on the U.S. stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-78.
    12. Yanping Zhao & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Return and volatility connectedness of Chinese onshore, offshore, and forward exchange rate," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1843-1860, November.
    13. Wu, Kai & Zhu, Jingran & Xu, Mingli & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Can crude oil drive the co-movement in the international stock market? Evidence from partial wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    15. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    16. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    17. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
    18. Jonathan Dark, 2021. "The lead of oil price rises on US equity market beliefs and preferences," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1861-1887, November.
    19. Charles Cao & Eric Ghysels & Frank Hatheway, 2000. "Price Discovery without Trading: Evidence from the Nasdaq Preopening," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1339-1365, June.
    20. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2019. "Separating BRIC using Islamic stocks and crude oil: dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 950-969.
    21. Tianyi Wang & Sicong Cheng & Fangsheng Yin & Mei Yu, 2022. "Overnight volatility, realized volatility, and option pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1264-1283, July.
    22. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 39-56.
    23. Ahoniemi, Katja & Lanne, Markku, 2013. "Overnight stock returns and realized volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 592-604.
    24. Salisu, Afees A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2015. "Modeling oil price–US stock nexus: A VARMA–BEKK–AGARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-12.
    25. Wang, Xunxiao, 2020. "Frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers among crude oil and international stock markets: The role of the interest rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    26. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
    27. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang, 2022. "Time-varying spillover effects and investment strategies between WTI crude oil, natural gas and Chinese stock markets related to belt and road initiative," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    28. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    29. Yu, Lean & Zha, Rui & Stafylas, Dimitrios & He, Kaijian & Liu, Jia, 2020. "Dependences and volatility spillovers between the oil and stock markets: New evidence from the copula and VAR-BEKK-GARCH models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    30. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng, 2018. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between crude oil and international financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 592-604.
    31. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    32. Liu, Zhenhua & Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Ding, Zhihua, 2020. "Implied volatility relationships between crude oil and the U.S. stock markets: Dynamic correlation and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    33. Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2016. "Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 417-430.
    34. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of oil prices on exchange rate and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 41-51.
    35. Ding, Haoyuan & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Crude oil and stock markets: Causal relationships in tails?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-69.
    36. Xu, Weiju & Ma, Feng & Chen, Wang & Zhang, Bing, 2019. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets: Evidence from China and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 310-320.
    37. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
    38. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Geopolitical risk and volatility spillovers in oil and stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 358-366.
    39. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Rong & Li, Sufang, 2014. "Modelling dynamic dependence between crude oil prices and Asia-Pacific stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 208-223.
    40. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic and frequency-domain risk spillovers among oil, gold, and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from implied volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    41. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    42. Tsiakas, Ilias, 2008. "Overnight information and stochastic volatility: A study of European and US stock exchanges," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 251-268, February.
    43. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    44. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
    45. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    46. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    47. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
    48. Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
    49. Gong, Xu & Chen, Liqiang & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    50. Hung, Ngo Thai & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Directional spillover effects and time-frequency nexus between oil, gold and stock markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    51. BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2019. "Good and bad volatility spillovers: An asymmetric connectedness," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 78-95.
    52. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Volatility forecasting: The role of lunch-break returns, overnight returns, trading volume and leverage effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 609-619.
    53. brayek, Angham ben & Sebai, Saber & Naoui, Kamel, 2015. "A study of the interactive relationship between oil price and exchange rate: A copula approach and a DCC-MGARCH model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 173-189.
    54. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    55. Yaming Ma & Ziwei Wang & Feng He, 2022. "How do economic policy uncertainties affect stock market volatility? Evidence from G7 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2303-2325, April.
    56. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Su-Fang & Yu, Keming, 2011. "Crude oil shocks and stock markets: A panel threshold cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 987-994, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Lina & Yang, Hao & Zhai, Jia & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2023. "Forecasting stock volatility during the stock market crash period: The role of Hawkes process," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    2. Zhang, Xiaotao & Li, Guoran & Li, Yishuo & Zou, Gaofeng & Wu, Ji George, 2023. "Which is more important in stock market forecasting: Attention or sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Liu, Zhenhua & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhai, Pengxiang & Wu, Shan & Ding, Zhihua & Zhou, Yuqin, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness in the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from a novel quantile spillover approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang & Zhang, Xinhua, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and portfolio strategies between crude oil, gold and Chinese stock markets related to new energy vehicle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Berna Aydoğan & Gökçe Tunç & Tezer Yelkenci, 2017. "The impact of oil price volatility on net-oil exporter and importer countries’ stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 231-253, August.
    6. Zhang, Dayong, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets revisited: Measuring connectedness from a global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 323-333.
    7. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Hoon Kang, Sang, 2021. "Volatility spillovers between oil and equity markets and portfolio risk implications in the US and vulnerable EU countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    9. Xu, Weiju & Ma, Feng & Chen, Wang & Zhang, Bing, 2019. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets: Evidence from China and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 310-320.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.
    11. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    12. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2019. "Separating BRIC using Islamic stocks and crude oil: dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 950-969.
    13. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng, 2018. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between crude oil and international financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 592-604.
    15. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2023. "Nonlinearity in the causality and systemic risk spillover between the OPEC oil and GCC equity markets: a pre- and post-financial crisis analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1027-1103, September.
    17. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2017. "Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 453-483.
    18. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    19. Mensi, Walid & Hanif, Waqas & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Choi, Ki-Hong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Upside/Downside spillovers between oil and Chinese stock sectors: From the global financial crisis to global pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness analysis between oil and African stock markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 60-83.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:43:y:2023:i:6:p:771-791. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.