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Stock market reaction to macroeconomic variables: An assessment with dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations

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  • Muhammad Kamran Khan
  • Jian‐Zhou Teng
  • Muhammad Imran Khan
  • Muhammad Fayaz Khan

Abstract

This research investigates the impact of oil prices, gold prices and exchange rate on Shanghai stock exchange returns. In this study, we used monthly time series data from January 2000 to December 2018. The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations model proposed by Jordan and Philips is used to examine the real change in regressors and their impact on regressand by using graphical representations. The examined results of the dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag model indicate that oil prices and gold prices have a positive effect on the stock returns in the short run and in the long run while the exchange rate indicate negative effect both in the short run and in the long run. Our research findings have significant implications for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian‐Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan & Muhammad Fayaz Khan, 2023. "Stock market reaction to macroeconomic variables: An assessment with dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2436-2448, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:3:p:2436-2448
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2543
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