IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v13y2004i8p781-791.html

The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero‐inflated negative binomial model

Author

Listed:
  • Mei‐ling Sheu
  • Teh‐wei Hu
  • Theodore E. Keeler
  • Michael Ong
  • Hai‐Yen Sung

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to determine the price sensitivity of smokers in their consumption of cigarettes, using evidence from a major increase in California cigarette prices due to Proposition 10 and the Tobacco Settlement. The study sample consists of individual survey data from Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFS) and price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1996 and 1999. A zero‐inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was applied for the statistical analysis. The statistical model showed that price did not have an effect on reducing the estimated prevalence of smoking. However, it indicated that among smokers the price elasticity was at the level of −0.46 and statistically significant. Since smoking prevalence is significantly lower than it was a decade ago, price increases are becoming less effective as an inducement for hard‐core smokers to quit, although they may respond by decreasing consumption. For those who only smoke occasionally (many of them being young adults) price increases alone may not be an effective inducement to quit smoking. Additional underlying behavioral factors need to be identified so that more effective anti‐smoking strategies can be developed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei‐ling Sheu & Teh‐wei Hu & Theodore E. Keeler & Michael Ong & Hai‐Yen Sung, 2004. "The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero‐inflated negative binomial model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 781-791, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:13:y:2004:i:8:p:781-791
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.849
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.849
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.849?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "Tobacco at the Crossroads: The Past and Future of Smoking Regulation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 193-212, Spring.
    2. Hai‐Yen Sung & Teh‐Wei Hu & Theodore E. Keeler, 1994. "Cigarette Taxation And Demand: An Empirical Model," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 91-100, July.
    3. Chaloupka, Frank, 1991. "Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-742, August.
    4. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    5. Paul V. Grootendorst, 1995. "A comparison of alternative models of prescription drug utilization," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 183-198, May.
    6. Lewit, Eugene M. & Coate, Douglas, 1982. "The potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 121-145, August.
    7. Andrew M. Jones, 2012. "health econometrics," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Lewit, Eugene M & Coate, Douglas & Grossman, Michael, 1981. "The Effects of Government Regulation on Teenage Smoking," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 545-569, December.
    9. Jones, Andrew M, 1989. "A Double-Hurdle Model of Cigarette Consumption," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 23-39, Jan.-Mar..
    10. William H. Greene, 1994. "Accounting for Excess Zeros and Sample Selection in Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models," Working Papers 94-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Wasserman, Jeffrey & Manning, Willard G. & Newhouse, Joseph P. & Winkler, John D., 1991. "The effects of excise taxes and regulations on cigarette smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 43-64, May.
    12. Hu, T.-W. & Sung, H.-Y. & Keeler, T.E., 1995. "Reducing cigarette consumption in California: Tobacco taxes vs an anti- smoking media campaign," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 85(9), pages 1218-1222.
    13. James R. Blaylock & W. Noel Blisard, 1992. "U.S. Cigarette Consumption: The Case of Low-Income Women," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(3), pages 698-705.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 1999. "Price, Clean Indoor Air, and Cigarette Smoking: Evidence from the Longitudinal Data for Young Adults," NBER Working Papers 6937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, "undated". "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Wechsler, Henry, 1997. "Price, tobacco control policies and smoking among young adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 359-373, June.
    4. W. David Bradford, 2003. "Pregnancy and the Demand for Cigarettes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1752-1763, December.
    5. Decicca, P. & Kenkel, D. & Mathios, A., 2000. "Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce Youth Smoking," Papers 00-3, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
    6. Hammar, Henrik & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2001. "Smokers' Decisions To Quit Smoking," Working Papers in Economics 59, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Jonas Schreyögg & Markus Grabka, 2010. "Copayments for ambulatory care in Germany: a natural experiment using a difference-in-difference approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 11(3), pages 331-341, June.
    8. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
    9. Charles L. Baum, 2009. "The effects of cigarette costs on BMI and obesity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 3-19, January.
    10. Nazmi Sari, 2009. "Physical inactivity and its impact on healthcare utilization," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 885-901, August.
    11. Eleni Raptou & Konstadinos Mattas & Efthimia Tsakiridou & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2005. "Factors Affecting Cigarette Demand," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 275-290, August.
    12. Michael Grossman, 1993. "Policy Watch: Alcohol and Cigarette Taxes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 211-222, Fall.
    13. Vinish Shrestha, 2025. "Revisiting the effects of cigarette taxation on smoking outcomes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1429-1475, March.
    14. Hana Ross & Frank J. Chaloupka, 2003. "The effect of cigarette prices on youth smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 217-230, March.
    15. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.
    16. Wakefield, Melanie A PhD & Chaloupka, Frank J. PhD, 1999. "Effectiveness of Comprehensive Tobacco Control Programs in Reducing Teenage Smoking: A Review," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt46n6b9mv, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    17. L. Elbakidze & Y. H. Jin, 2015. "Are Economic Development and Education Improvement Associated with Participation in Transnational Terrorism?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(8), pages 1520-1535, August.
    18. Dee, Thomas S., 1999. "The complementarity of teen smoking and drinking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 769-793, December.
    19. Jeffrey E. Harris & Beatriz Lopez-Valcarcel, 2004. "Asymmetric Social Interaction in Economics: Cigarette Smoking Among Young People in the United States, 1992-1999," NBER Working Papers 10409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sunday Azagba & Mesbah Sharaf, 2011. "Cigarette Taxes and Smoking Participation: Evidence from Recent Tax Increases in Canada," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-18, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:13:y:2004:i:8:p:781-791. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.