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Cigarette Taxation And Demand: An Empirical Model

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  • HAI-YEN SUNG
  • TEH-WEI HU
  • THEODORE E. KEELER

Abstract

"This paper evaluates the impact of taxation on cigarette consumption, using a recursive model that includes a retail price equation and a dynamic demand equation. The analysis is based on panel data for 11 western states over the period 1967-1990. Results indicate that cigarette consumption is price-sensitive, with a demand elasticity of -0.40 in the short run and -0.48 in the long run. A tax increase, such as that imposed in California in January 1989, can have a strong effect of reducing cigarette consumption by between 11.2 percent in the short run and 13.4 percent in the long run. These results support the theory of rational addiction and the hypothesis that, as a part of their oligopoly behavior, the tobacco companies often do raise end-market prices by more than the amount of the increase in tax rates". Copyright 1994 Western Economic Association International.

Suggested Citation

  • Hai-Yen Sung & Teh-Wei Hu & Theodore E. Keeler, 1994. "Cigarette Taxation And Demand: An Empirical Model," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 91-100, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:12:y:1994:i:3:p:91-100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chaloupka, Frank, 1991. "Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-742, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Jin-Long & Liu, Jin-Tan & Hammitt, James K. & Chou, Shin-Yi, 1999. "The price elasticity of opium in Taiwan, 1914-1942," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 795-810, December.
    2. Grignon, Michel, 2009. "An empirical investigation of heterogeneity in time preferences and smoking behaviors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 739-751, October.
    3. Chiang-Ming Chen & Kuo-Liang Chang & Lin Lin & Jwo-Leun Lee, 2014. "Brand switching or reduced consumption? A study of how cigarette taxes affect tobacco consumption," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(9), pages 991-998, December.
    4. Claudio Agostini, 2012. "Incidencia Tributaria en el Mercado de las Gasolinas en Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 27(2), pages 55-73, October.
    5. Anger, Silke & Kvasnicka, Michael & Siedler, Thomas, 2011. "One Last Puff? Public Smoking Bans and Smoking Behavior," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 591-601.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0180 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Wechsler, Henry, 1997. "Price, tobacco control policies and smoking among young adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 359-373, June.
    8. Rhoads, Jennifer K., 2012. "The effect of comprehensive state tobacco control programs on adult cigarette smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 393-405.
    9. Silke Anger & Michael Kvasnicka & Thomas Siedler, 2010. "One Last Puff? – Public Smoking Bans and Smoking Behavior," Ruhr Economic Papers 0180, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Levy, David T. & Bales, Sarah & Lam, Nguyen T. & Nikolayev, Leonid, 2006. "The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: Results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(7), pages 1819-1830, April.
    11. Decicca, P. & Kenkel, D. & Mathios, A., 2000. "Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce Youth Smoking," Papers 00-3, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
    12. Claudio Agostini, 2010. "Tributación a Los Cigarrillos: Análisis y Propuestas," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv246, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    13. Chiou, Lesley & Muehlegger, Erich, 2008. "Crossing the Line: The Effect of Cross Border Cigarette Sales on State Excise Tax Revenues," Working Paper Series rwp08-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    14. Mei-ling Sheu & Teh-wei Hu & Theodore E. Keeler & Michael Ong & Hai-Yen Sung, 2004. "The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 781-791.
    15. Rajeev Goel & Michael Nelson, 2012. "Cigarette demand and effectiveness of U.S. smoking control policies: state-level evidence for more than half a century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 1079-1095, June.
    16. Auld, M. Christopher & Grootendorst, Paul, 2004. "An empirical analysis of milk addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1117-1133, November.
    17. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 1999. "Determinants of Smoking Cessation: An Analysis of Young Adult Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 7262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. W. David Bradford, 2003. "Pregnancy and the Demand for Cigarettes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1752-1763, December.
    19. Chung-Ping Loh & Chin-Shyan Chen & Tsai-Ching Liu, 2009. "Multiple Dimensions of Cigarette Smoking and Responsiveness to Cigarette Price Changes in Taiwan," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 203-213, June.
    20. Yi-Wen Tsai & Chung-Lin Yang & Chin-Shyan Chen & Tsai-Ching Liu & Pei-Fen Chen, 2005. "The effect of Taiwan's tax-induced increases in cigarette prices on brand-switching and the consumption of cigarettes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 627-641.
    21. Chiou Lesley & Muehlegger Erich, 2008. "Crossing the Line: Direct Estimation of Cross-Border Cigarette Sales and the Effect on Tax Revenue," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, December.
    22. Silvia Tiezzi, 2009. "The Economic Impact of Clean Indoor Air Laws: A Review of Alternative Approaches and of Empirical findings," Department of Economics University of Siena 570, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    23. Pfeifer, Gregor & Reutter, Mirjam & Strohmaier, Kristina, 2017. "Goodbye smokers' corner: Health effects of school smoking bans," Ruhr Economic Papers 678, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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